AMD’s Stock Enjoyed Its Best Three-Day Run Since 2016, And One Analyst Sees A Nice Path Ahead

Dow Jones
10/09

Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s stock hasn't cooled off in the wake of its OpenAI-fueled rally.

The chip stock $(AMD)$ is up 40.8% across these latest three sessions, which would make for its best three-day stretch since a 52.3% run that ended in April 2016, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Most of the gains came Monday, when AMD announced that OpenAI would deploy 6 gigawatts' worth of the company's chips while receiving a warrant to buy up to 160 million AMD shares.

The near-term picture looks good for AMD's stock, according to Mizuho desk-based analyst Jordan Klein. "Their actual numbers do not matter anymore," he argued. What he means is that instead of focusing on the company's success with its current MI355 line, it's "now a game of how quickly can they ramp MI450" to get the full 6-gigawatt OpenAI deployment.

Admittedly, Klein thinks long-only managers have been "skeptical" of AMD's recent stock rally and reluctant to chase it. But he sees further catalysts ahead, including an important investor day in November that he expects to pack bullish catalysts.

The OpenAI deal could also elevate AMD's profile in the world of artificial-intelligence chips.

"We assume the primary rationale behind the deal is that OpenAI is looking to diversify its chip suppliers," Gimme Credit senior bond analyst Dave Novosel wrote on Wednesday. "Secondly, it is not clear that Nvidia could provide all of the chips OpenAI is demanding. But obviously OpenAI thinks very highly of the Advanced Micro chips, possibly prompting others to use AMD GPUs."

AMD's stock was the S&P 500's SPX best performer on Wednesday, up 11.4%. More generally, the AI trade has come back alive in the session, following some Tuesday jitters around a report from the Information discussing expectations for low Oracle Corp. $(ORCL)$ gross margins related to the company's Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) chip deployments.

That fueled concerns about the broader economics of the AI race - though Oracle's stock was bouncing Wednesday, as some on Wall Street saw the commentary as consistent with past statements and the broader financial realities of initial deployments. Shares of Oracle and Nvidia were each up about 2% on Wednesday.

Other big gainers included Dell Technologies Inc. $(DELL)$, which hosted a well-received investor day on Tuesday and was among the major S&P 500 gainers, up 9%.

CoreWeave Inc.'s stock (CRWV) was also charging higher, up 8.7%, with Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani defending the company's financial profile after its shares got caught up in Tuesday's Oracle-related selloff.

The cloud company has a "durable, risk-managed" model that looks "profitable at scale even when taking high levels of depreciation expenses into account," he wrote.

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