Spot Gold Tops $3980 per ounce as Goldman Sachs analysts predict the metal could trade near $5,000 an ounce by the end of next year.

Gold’s surge has a lot further to go, say Goldman Sachs analysts, who now predict the metal could trade near $5,000 an ounce by the end of next year.

「We raise our December 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900/toz (vs. $4,300 prior) because the inflows driving the 17% rally since Aug. 26 — western ETF inflows and likely central bank buying — are sticky in our pricing framework, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast,」 wrote analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, in a note to clients late Tuesday.

They expect ETF inflows will see a boost from 100 basis points in Federal Reserve rate cuts by the middle of next year. Also, the level of those ETF holdings are now fully caught up with Goldman’s own U.S.-rates implied estimate, suggesting 「recent ETF strength is not an overshoot.」

Goldman analysts see risks gold could go even higher, theorizing that investors currently holding stocks and bonds could begin to diversify more into the much smaller gold market. Their chart shows just how little is invested in gold ETFs versus stocks and U.S. Treasury: