The Federal Reserve is all but certain to lower interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point when officials gather next week, extending the central bank's pivot toward bolstering the job market and away from its inflation fight. Now the suspense shifts to the Federal Open Market Committee's December meeting, and whether policymakers will cut again, or hit pause.

Fed officials have been mum so far about December, focusing instead on the Oct. 28-29 FOMC meeting. Most have lined up behind another quarter-point reduction in rates, which would cut the federal-funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%.

Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have publicly endorsed a quarter-point cut, while Fed governor Stephen Miran, a recent appointee of President Donald Trump, has pushed for a larger half-point move. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this past week that "it seems prudent" to ease a bit more, and Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks were widely interpreted as greenlighting an October cut.

Futures markets reflect that consensus. Nearly 100% of investors expect an October cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

But the outlook for December is less certain. September's Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed's quarterly forecasting exercise, revealed a range of views about future policy decisions. While the median projection of the 19 voting members was for two or more rate cuts this year following September's cut, seven members said they expected no further cuts and two said they expected just one cut. That dispersion keeps the year-end meeting in play.

Plus, the evolution of monetary policy hinges on economic data that may be published late, or not at all.

A federal government shutdown that began Oct. 1 has delayed or degraded key reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis. If agencies reopen in time, a condensed wave of catch-up data on jobs and prices will likely land ahead of the Dec. 9-10 FOMC meeting, potentially reshaping the committee's judgment. Powell has stressed that policy will be decided meeting by meeting as officials balance a slowdown in hiring against inflation that remains above the Fed's 2% target, a challenging policy scenario.

A sharper slowdown in hiring would likely mean another rate cut, but stubborn inflation, especially if magnified by tariff effects, could make the case for a pause.

Investors, economists and the Fed will have other data to parse if the shutdown lingers. Private payroll trackers and state unemployment-insurance claims are filling the gap while official BLS reports remain stalled. The first official jobs report after any shutdown resolution will be critical. Whether tariff pressures intensify or fade will also shape the debate inside the Fed.

The Fed will publish its last Summary of Economic Projections for the year at the conclusion of its December meeting, giving the FOMC a chance to broadcast its rate forecast and economic outlook for 2026. Those updated dots will offer the clearest signal yet as to whether officials see room for additional cuts early next year.

The committee's staffing will also shift in 2026. Miran's term expires in January, and President Donald Trump is widely expected to replace him with whomever he will nominate to become the next Fed chair when Powell's term as chair ends next May.

Voting seats among regional Fed presidents rotate annually. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who has recently emphasized caution about easing while inflation stays elevated, is among those whose vote will rotate into play.

For now, the October meeting appears to be a formality. The December meeting is where the debate begins.