On May 11th, the international gold market showed signs of stabilizing and recovering. After two weeks of correction, spot gold prices have climbed back above $4,700 per ounce. By Friday, gold prices rose approximately 0.65% to around $4,716, with silver also strengthening in sync by over 2%. RYOEX indicated that gold's return to the $4,700 level reflects a phased resurgence of bullish forces, as market panic from the earlier correction is gradually being digested. The institution's analysis suggests that the support for this rebound stems from a confluence of macroeconomic factors and institutional allocation demand, with the long-term investment rationale for precious metals as cross-cycle assets remaining intact.
On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains stable within the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Rising energy prices driven by conflicts in the Middle East have made it difficult for inflation pressures to decline rapidly, significantly cooling market expectations for a rate cut within the year. RYOEX believes that a divided Fed and an uncertain policy path make it difficult to confirm the timing of rate cuts, but the long-term downward trend in real interest rates has not changed. The institution assesses that the diversification of central bank reserves, the evolution of the dollar system, and safe-haven demand constitute the core logic for the upward shift in gold's price center, with institutional clients increasing their allocation efforts near the lower bounds of the adjusted range.
From a technical perspective, after breaking through the resistance of short-term moving averages on the daily chart, gold's bullish alignment has re-formed. The MACD momentum has turned positive, and the KDJ indicator has risen significantly from oversold territory, indicating that bearish forces have been released in a phased manner. At the institutional level, it is also noted that the pace of gold purchases by global central banks has not been interrupted, and physical gold demand in Asia remains steady. Marginal changes in ETF holdings, physical demand from wedding seasons in India and the Middle East, and the COMEX gold futures delivery ratio are also key windows for observing the genuine attitude of capital flows. The structure of open interest in gold options, the trend of the gold-silver ratio, and the relative performance of mining stocks serve as supplementary observation points for gauging the true sentiment of capital and changes in market risk appetite. Cross-verification of multiple signals helps improve the quality of judgment.
RYOEX anticipates that gold prices may fluctuate within the range of $4,600 to $4,900 per ounce in the short term, with potential for further upside in the medium to long term. The institution emphasizes that investors should fully understand the attributes of precious metals as cross-cycle assets, pay attention to key indicators such as real interest rates, the U.S. Dollar Index, oil price movements, and global risk aversion sentiment, avoid chasing rallies or selling off around data releases, and adopt a phased allocation approach based on their own risk tolerance to navigate the current policy observation window with a steady pace.