Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis: On May 11, gold fundamentals analysis: In early Asian trading on Monday, spot gold edged down, trading around $4898 per ounce. The price has been hovering near $4700 per ounce as the situation in Iran continues to develop unpredictably. Over the weekend, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's latest response regarding a ceasefire proposal in the Middle East, forcing the market to play the "headline news frenzy" game. Gold prices rose slightly last Friday, posting a weekly gain. Spot gold closed up 0.6% at $4715.18 per ounce on Friday, with a cumulative weekly increase of 2.15%, influenced by market optimism that the U.S.-Iran conflict might end, alleviating inflation and interest rate concerns.
Gold technical analysis: On the daily chart, gold formed a small bullish candle on Friday, with the price stabilizing above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, forming a short-term support zone. After previously testing the low near $4500, gold has continued to rebound, forming a clear bullish structure with higher lows and higher highs. The daily chart shows a minor gain, with the K-line pattern indicating consolidation at elevated levels. The MACD indicator's green histogram continues to shorten, and the fast and slow lines are gradually converging, suggesting waning bearish momentum, though resistance above should not be underestimated. The core support below lies in the $4680-$4700 range, which is a dense area of short-term moving average support and the trend support line for this rebound. The core resistance above is at $4750-$4780; a break above this level would open the path for further gains towards $4800 and above.
From the 4-hour chart perspective, gold's rebound from the low has not formed a unilateral trend but is oscillating within the $4670-$4764 range. The price continues to find support around the middle Bollinger Band, with the Bollinger Bands gradually contracting, indicating narrowing short-term volatility and an approaching potential trend change. On the 4-hour chart, the moving averages are intertwined and flat, suggesting a relative balance between bullish and bearish forces in the short term, but the overall center of gravity is shifting higher, indicating a clear consolidation with a bullish bias. In terms of indicators, the MACD shows a slight bearish divergence, while the KDJ indicator is neutral, with no clear overbought or oversold signals. The short-term market is trading time for space, digesting previous gains and accumulating energy for a breakout. The key support on the 4-hour chart is currently at $4690, with key resistance at $4750. Until a breakout occurs, the consolidation pattern is expected to continue.
On the 1-hour chart, after surging to $4764.7 and retreating on Thursday, gold consolidated and gathered momentum for a second attempt towards $4750 on Friday before pulling back again, indicating some weakening in bullish momentum. However, the downside is limited, suggesting that short-term high-level consolidation is likely to persist, awaiting fundamental or capital flow catalysts to break the range. The core support below is $4680-$4700, with secondary support at $4650. The core resistance above is $4750-$4780, with strong resistance at the $4800 psychological level. In the short term, gold is highly likely to continue oscillating within the $4680-$4750 range, with a directional breakout expected next week. A sustained move above $4750 would restart the bullish trend, targeting the $4800-$4850 range. A break below the $4680 support would initiate a phase of correction towards the $4630-$4600 range. Overall, for today's short-term gold trading, the recommended strategy is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key resistance to watch on the upside is the $4730-$4765 zone, while key support on the downside is the $4660-$4630 zone.
Latest Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis: Crude oil fundamentals analysis: On Monday (May 11, Beijing time), during early Asian trading, the situation in Iran continues to develop unpredictably. Over the weekend, U.S. President Trump rejected Iran's latest response regarding a ceasefire proposal in the Middle East, forcing the market to play the "headline news frenzy" game. Affected by this, U.S. crude opened nearly 3% higher, trading around $98.42 per barrel, and may test the $100 per barrel level intraday. Due to mutual airstrikes between the U.S. and Iran disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude surged as much as 3% during Friday's session but later pared gains as traders hoped for a longer-lasting ceasefire. Brent crude closed up 1.23% at $101.29 per barrel, while U.S. crude closed up 0.64% at $95.42 per barrel. However, both benchmarks fell more than 6% for the week.
Crude oil technical analysis: From the daily chart perspective, oil prices are fluctuating around the moving average system, indicating a medium-term objective trend of consolidation. In terms of primary and secondary rhythms, the overall oscillatory pattern of crude oil is a secondary rhythm, which has now persisted for two months. According to the alternation rule of primary and secondary rhythms, the medium-term subjective trend direction is upward. Currently, the MACD indicator is operating near the zero axis, with bullish momentum waning. The medium-term trend is expected to remain dominated by consolidation. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, crude oil prices continue to oscillate at low levels, showing a weak rebound. Prices are crossing the moving average system, with the short-term objective trend direction being sideways consolidation, while the primary trend direction remains downward. Bearish momentum shows signs of weakening, suggesting that crude oil movements at the start of the week will likely maintain a low-level consolidation rhythm. Overall, for today's crude oil trading, the recommended strategy is primarily to buy on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key resistance to watch on the upside is the $105.0-$110.0 zone, while key support on the downside is the $93.0-$88.0 zone.