On May 11, the stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data for the previous Friday (an addition of 115,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 62,000) reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, causing gold prices to surge and then retreat. This week, global markets will enter a data-intensive period, with key inflation, credit, and consumption figures from China, the U.S., and Europe being released. This is coupled with a series of speeches from major central bank officials and the simultaneous release of three major oil market reports, intertwining geopolitical risks and policy variables.
Over the past weekend leading into Monday, May 11, a major new development emerged in U.S.-Iran negotiations—Iran formally responded to the U.S. peace proposal, with former President Trump calling it "completely unacceptable." This indicates that the geopolitical deadlock has not eased but rather escalated further. The gold market is currently caught in a fierce tug-of-war between "inflation concerns applying downward pressure" and "geopolitical risks providing support."
Market expectations are now betting against a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, funds appear more inclined to flow into commodities like crude oil as an inflation hedge rather than purely into gold for safe-haven purposes. Additionally, significant profit-taking above the $4700 level has left short-term bullish momentum insufficient. However, there is underlying support; the People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, and continued gold-buying demand from global central banks remains a stabilizing pillar for gold prices.
From a technical perspective, after last week's rally, gold entered a period of high-level consolidation. An hourly chart showed a head-and-shoulders top pattern. Today, influenced by the breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks, the market opened lower, directly breaking below the neckline support of this pattern. Although there was a subsequent rebound, it failed to sustain, meaning the news-driven impact aligned with the technical pattern's requirements. Consequently, the short-term trend may continue the downward extension following the head-and-shoulders breakdown. Intraday, attention should be paid to whether the gap between $4700 and $4710 gets filled, which represents a key resistance area. On the downside, the initial focus is the previous low around $4670-$4660. If the market confirms that the gap above cannot be filled, a renewed downward extension is likely to begin, with a key test expected around the $4620 level.
In summary, the current market situation most strongly discourages "taking things for granted" (such as assuming gold must rise if conflict occurs). The suggested trading approach is to abandon fantasies of a clear trend and instead focus on selling near range highs and buying near range lows. Closely monitor the $4660 level as the intraday强弱分界线 (strength/weakness demarcation line): if it holds without breaking, a technical rebound can be considered; if it is effectively broken, a move down towards the $4600 zone is possible. Furthermore, remember to reduce positions ahead of tomorrow night's CPI data release to avoid being stopped out by random pre-data volatility.
Therefore, the intraday trading suggestions are as follows: Gold: Consider buying between $4675-$4670, with a stop loss at $4660, targeting $4730-$4750. If the price breaks below $4660, exit long positions on any反弹 (bounce) and consider selling, targeting the $4600 area.
Key financial data and events to watch today: Monday, May 11, 2026 22:00 U.S. Existing Home Sales (Annualized) for April.