Market Analysis May 11th - Last week's market direction continued to be influenced by the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with intermittent remarks from the US President also causing market fluctuations. Regarding Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the US economy added 115,000 jobs in April, exceeding Wall Street expectations for the second consecutive month. This figure was lower than the upwardly revised 185,000 jobs added in March but higher than the 65,000 anticipated by economists in a survey of institutions. In recent months, US employment data has exhibited significant volatility, swinging between substantial gains and declines, making it challenging for analysts to assess the overall health of the economy. Although the unemployment rate remains relatively low, divisions within the Federal Reserve are intensifying over how to respond to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict, with policymakers debating its potential economic impact. Some officials are concerned that rising inflation may coincide with an increasing unemployment rate, creating a stagflation scenario, as consumers reduce spending, leading employers to cut jobs. Cleveland Fed President Harker stated on Thursday that if businesses see demand for their products is no longer strong, it could mean they will reduce hiring. Currently, it appears that essentially everyone who wants a job can find one. However, if the demand side comes under pressure, then the employment aspect of the Fed's mandate could be at risk. Therefore, a high degree of uncertainty exists. Non-Farm Payrolls recording growth for two consecutive months for the first time in nearly a year supports the Fed holding steady. This week's key economic data focuses on China's April CPI year-on-year rate at 9:30 today. Later, attention turns to the US April Existing Home Sales Annualized at 22:00. On Tuesday, focus on the US April Unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate at 20:30, with an expected 3.7% versus a previous 3.3%. On Wednesday, watch the US April PPI year-on-year rate at 20:30, followed by the US EIA Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending May 8th, US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending May 8th, and US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories for the week ending May 8th at 22:30. On Thursday, monitor the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 9th and the US April Retail Sales Month-over-Month rate at 20:30, with expectations of 205,000 and 0.5% respectively. Later, watch the US March Business Inventories Month-over-Month rate at 22:00. Friday primarily focuses on the US May New York Fed Manufacturing Index at 20:30. Later, see the US April Industrial Production Month-over-Month rate at 21:15. On that day, Powell's term as Fed Chair concludes, with Warsh set to take over the helm of the Federal Reserve. The gold market experienced a dip and rally last week. Opening at 4637.2 at the start of the week, prices initially fell, with the weekly low reaching 4500.1 before a strong rally pushed the weekly high to 4765.2, followed by consolidation. The week ultimately closed at 4715.5, forming a weekly candlestick with a very long lower shadow, resembling a hammer. Following this pattern, with a weekly double-hammer bottom formation, the outlook for this week remains bullish. After today's lower opening, consider long positions from around 4680, with a stop loss at 4674, targeting 4690, 4700, 4710, and 4720. Prepare for potential short positions upon reaching the 4720 resistance area. The silver market opened higher last week at 75.817, then experienced a strong initial decline, with the weekly low reaching 72.105 before a powerful rally pushed the weekly high to 82.159, followed by consolidation. The week closed at 80.386, forming a large bullish weekly candlestick with a lower shadow longer than the upper shadow. Following this pattern, after the morning's lower opening, consider long positions around 78.5, with a stop loss at 78.25, targeting 79.2, 79.8, 80.2, and 80.6-81. The EUR/USD pair opened last week at 1.17449, then experienced a strong decline, with the weekly low reaching 1.16755 before a powerful rally pushed the weekly high to 1.17965, followed by consolidation. The week closed at 1.17864, forming a weekly candlestick with an extremely long lower shadow, resembling a hammer. Following this pattern, after a lower opening this week, consider long positions from around 1.17450, with a stop loss at 1.17250, targeting 1.17800, 1.18000, 1.18200, and 1.18500. The crude oil market opened lower last week at 100.95, then experienced a strong initial rally, with the weekly high reaching 100.62 before a sharp decline pushed the weekly low to 89.35, followed by a strong rebound. The week closed at 95.31, forming a large bearish weekly candlestick with an upper shadow slightly longer than the lower shadow. Following this pattern, after a higher opening this week, consider long positions today from around 96.5, with a stop loss at 96, targeting 98, 99, and 100. The Nasdaq index opened last week at 27779.65, then experienced an initial decline, with the weekly low reaching 27484.8 before a strong rally pushed the weekly high to 29270.1, followed by consolidation. The week closed at 29214.56, forming a large bullish weekly candlestick with a very long lower shadow. Following this pattern, this week consider long positions from around 28850, with a stop loss at 28790, targeting 29000, 29100, 29200, and 29300. A breakout could target 29400, 29500, 29800, and 30000.