Update Time：2025/01/14
Sell the News? Exploring Tech Stocks After CES?
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After delivering an inspiring keynote at the CES conference, NVIDIA saw its stock price open strongly and hit an all-time intraday high on Tuesday, January 7 (Eastern Time), only to close down by over 6%.
The market speculates two main reasons for this decline:
A. Weakened Rate Cut Expectations
Strong employment data and a robust ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reduced expectations for total rate cuts in 2025 to just 37 basis points, which translates to less than two rate cuts. This pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year yield approaching 4.7%, putting overall pressure on U.S. equities.
B. Classic 'Sell the News' Scenario
Analysts believe that while NVIDIA's recent announcements highlight a positive long-term outlook for the company, the short-term upside potential appears limited compared to some investors' expectations. Stifel Financial Corp. noted that the announcements made on Monday were significant but primarily focused on long-term prospects.
*Source: Bloomberg
*内容来源：彭博
Update Time：2025/01/14
Update Time：2025/01/14
Short-term data fluctuations are significant, but long-term investment logic remains unchanged.
In the short term, concerns over the Federal Reserve and inflation will likely continue to drive the "good news is bad news" narrative. However, from a full-year perspective, the positive trends in the economy and stock market remain fundamentally intact.
On the data side, the Intergrated Services Management (ISM) services report suggests potential inflationary pressures, and the JOLTS job openings report exceeded expectations, further fueling hawkish concerns. The voluntary quit rate in the labor market fell to 1.9%, its lowest level since the early days of the pandemic, indicating a cooling labor market. Hiring slowed to its lowest pace since April 2020, with hires decreasing by 125,000 to 5.269 million, reflecting more selective hiring by companies.
While short-term data may cause market volatility, the softening labor market and Powell's dovish tone suggest that the likelihood of excessive tightening by the Federal Reserve remains low.
Overall, economic fundamentals and long-term investment logic remain positive, with market concerns potentially overblown. Short-term pullbacks in tech stocks have sparked greater divergence, but a correction in the range of 5%-10% still presents a solid opportunity to add to positions.
Source: Tiger Asset Management
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