Update Time：2025/01/22
The trump 2.0 era begins
"First-Day executive orders" emerge as a key market variable
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The Incoming U.S. President will be officially sworn in on Monday (20th), Eastern Time. Market focus is now shifting from data to policy, with Trump's "First-Day Executive Orders" poised to become a key variable for next week's financial markets.
According to media reports, during a two-hour meeting with Senate Republicans, Trump stated that approximately 100 executive orders are ready to be signed on January 20, 2024, his inauguration day.
Key First-Day Commitments by Trump:
New Tariff Policy: Plans to impose a 25% import tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, along with the establishment of a dedicated "Foreign Revenue Bureau" to oversee tariff collection.
Energy Policy: Last month, Trump's future press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, told Fox News that the new administration would immediately expedite nationwide approvals for drilling and fracking permits to quickly lower living costs. Notably, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, US energy production reached record highs in 2023, exceeding consumption levels.
Revamping the Auto Industry: Trump pledged to promote a fully "Made in America" automotive sector, involving the use of U.S. energy, sourcing from American suppliers, and hiring American workers. At a rally in September, Trump emphasized that this transformation would begin on his inauguration day.
*Source: Bloomberg
*内容来源：彭博
Update Time：2025/01/22
Update Time：2025/01/22
Policy uncertainty abounds—Short-term caution is essential
The US Dollar Index has stabilized at 108.5, showing a clear rebound signal on Friday. Additionally, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has ceased its decline, which could spell trouble for U.S. equities.
The ability of the U.S. stock market to continue its rally hinges on the performance of the Dollar Index. Over the past week, the Dollar Index failed to break through the 110 level and subsequently took a dive. This pullback in the dollar, alongside falling Treasury yields, allowed U.S. equities to recover. However, with the Dollar Index now stabilizing, short-term risks remain unresolved.
In addition to the Dollar Index and the impact of Trump’s inauguration, whether Japan raises interest rates is another key variable.
The Bank of Japan is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Friday. According to media reports citing insiders, Japan’s central bank is likely to raise rates in January, provided that Trump’s inauguration does not bring unexpected negative shocks.
Historical data shows that previous rate hikes by the Bank of Japan have caused immediate turbulence in U.S. stocks, exacerbating asset depreciation risks.
Given the numerous policy events and heightened uncertainty this week, risk-averse investors may consider allocating safe-haven assets such as gold, financial stocks, and bonds to hedge against potential market downturns.
Source: Tiger Asset Management
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