Gold Market Trend Analysis: On December 16, gold experienced a volatile session, initially climbing to test resistance near 4350 before a sharp evening pullback to around 4285, erasing all intraday gains. The session closed with a small bullish candle featuring a long upper shadow.
From a daily chart perspective, gold's overall structure remains bullish, with moving averages maintaining a bullish divergence, suggesting further upside potential. However, the past two sessions—Friday and yesterday—both saw rallies followed by retreats, forming consecutive candles with long upper shadows. This technical pattern signals potential danger, indicating that bears are staging a counterattack and consolidating momentum.
Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will be critical. A bearish NFP report could trigger deeper corrective moves, while a bullish reading may confirm the recent pullbacks as mere profit-taking by bulls, with previous highs continuing to cap upside momentum.
Combining daily and hourly chart analysis, and accounting for NFP uncertainty, gold is expected to maintain high volatility today. Key resistance lies at 4320-30, a level tested repeatedly yesterday and serving as last Friday’s breakdown point. Support is seen at the 5-day moving average (4285), yesterday’s low. A bearish NFP could breach this level, potentially extending declines toward last Friday’s low of 4260 or even the 10-day MA near 4240.
Intraday trading suggests scalping within 4330-4280 with ultra-light positions, while awaiting NFP-driven adjustments.
Silver Outlook: Silver remains firmly bullish, with no attempt to predict a top. After last week’s rally to 64.6 (near our 65 target), prices consolidated higher, closing above 63.5 yesterday. Despite gold’s sharp drop, silver held steady. The trend remains upward, but caution is advised toward Thursday and Friday’s price action. Key support lies near 60, with 61 and 60 serving as critical levels. Resistance is at 65—breakouts could extend gains indefinitely.
Trading Strategy: Focus on buying dips, monitoring support at 61 and 60, while watching for a breakout above 65.