On August 15, LAOPU GOLD (06181) announced its second price increase of the year, drawing renewed market attention to gold price trends. Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations have repeatedly become a core disruptive factor for gold prices, with the U.S. July PPI data exceeding expectations causing market cooling on September rate cut expectations, while central bank gold purchases and robust physical demand provide long-term support for gold prices. Geopolitical factors present a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, while the trend of residents shifting asset allocation toward gold becomes increasingly evident. Multiple institutions believe the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle will drive gold prices higher, though some institutions remind investors to pay attention to gold investment risks.
// LAOPU GOLD Raises Prices Again //
On August 15, LAOPU GOLD's official account released a price adjustment notice, announcing product price increases effective August 25. This marks LAOPU GOLD's second planned price increase this year. The company typically conducts price adjustments twice annually. In February this year, LAOPU GOLD had already implemented one price adjustment, with product price increases ranging from 5% to 12%.
On July 27, LAOPU GOLD released a profit warning, indicating that for the first half ending June 30, 2025, the company achieved sales performance of approximately 14.3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 252%; adjusted net profit reached approximately 2.36 billion yuan, up about 292% year-on-year.
Strong physical demand has driven domestic gold shop prices above the 1,000 yuan per gram threshold, with Chow Sang Sang currently quoting 1,012 yuan per gram. This phenomenon confirms the continued gold purchasing trend by global central banks and sovereign wealth funds.
// Multiple Positive Factors Supporting Gold Prices //
On August 7, People's Bank of China data showed gold reserves reached 73.96 million ounces at the end of July, an increase of 600,000 ounces month-on-month, marking nine consecutive months of increases, echoing the global central bank gold purchasing wave. World Gold Council statistics indicate that while global central bank gold purchases slowed in Q2 2024, the first half still exceeded the ten-year average by 40%, becoming an important pillar of gold demand.
Hong Kong regulators' joint statement on the stablecoin market also reflects restructuring pressures facing the global financial system, with deep concerns about monetary credit systems forming an important foundation for gold's long-term bull run.
Additionally, the shift in residents' asset allocation further highlights gold's attractiveness. In July, Chinese household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, 780 billion yuan more than the same period last year, while non-bank deposits surged by 2.14 trillion yuan. This "deposit migration" phenomenon partially flows toward gold assets, competing with the stock market's gradual bull run.
// Federal Reserve Policy and Geopolitical Games //
According to Wind data, London gold spot and COMEX gold prices have both maintained levels above $2,300, potentially continuing short-term consolidation patterns. Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations have repeatedly become the core disruptive factor for the gold market recently.
U.S. July PPI surged 3.3% year-on-year, far exceeding expectations of 2.5%, creating the largest month-on-month increase since June 2022. This data directly cooled market expectations for September rate cuts. More critically, San Francisco Fed President Daly explicitly opposed implementing a 50 basis point aggressive cut in September, while Chicago Fed President Goolsby emphasized the need to wait for inflation to be fully controlled. These hawkish statements sharply contrast with Treasury Secretary Yellen's calls for rate cuts, with policy uncertainty intensifying gold's short-term volatility.
Furthermore, multiple regional geopolitical factors present a tug-of-war situation, adding uncertainty to gold price trends.
// Institutional Views //
Orient Securities released a research report stating that the current period presents an excellent investment opportunity for the gold sector. Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have strengthened significantly. Additionally, subsequent U.S. inflation data is expected to continue rising under tariff influences, with gold poised to begin a new round of upward momentum driven by dual logic.
Huaxin Securities pointed out that the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle, with gold maintaining its upward trend. Minsheng Securities believes that rate cuts are about to restart, with gold awaiting a breakthrough to new highs. Global central banks' willingness to allocate gold assets is rising, with gold's price center expected to continue moving upward.
Regarding gold price trends, some institutions maintain a cautious stance. Zhonghui Futures believes gold investment has four major risk points requiring attention: 1. Policy reversals, such as Fed rate cuts falling short of expectations or excessive U.S. fiscal stimulus potentially triggering dollar rebounds; 2. Technical overbought conditions, with position concentration reaching historical highs easily triggering stampede retreats; 3. Alternative asset diversions, with the rise of Bitcoin and other crypto assets potentially weakening safe-haven capital inflows; 4. Geopolitical premium fade, with trade conflict or tariff risk mitigation potentially leading to rapid gold safe-haven premium reversals.