Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are weighing heavily on global energy markets after two supertankers were struck by unidentified projectiles while transiting the waterway. Brent crude futures surged past $92 per barrel, US diesel crack spreads blew through the $100 per barrel threshold, and Goldman Sachs warned that diesel sits at the very centre of a supply squeeze.

Greek maritime risk firm Marisks reported that Saudi shipping giant Bahri's very large crude carrier Sidr, along with the Senegal Prosperity, operated by Sinokor, were each hit by projectiles early Tuesday as they departed the Strait of Hormuz, with the incidents occurring northeast of Oman's Khasab and further east. The UK Maritime Trade Operations later confirmed independently that an oil tanker completing an outbound transit had reported being struck three times, without naming the vessel. The attacks follow a warning from President Trump on Monday, who said he did not rule out further strikes on Iran, prompting markets to price in a higher war risk premium.

The market reaction was immediate. Brent crude rallied sharply during Asian and European trading, holding firmly above $92 at the time of writing, while US diesel crack spreads simultaneously broke past $100 per barrel. Spot gold moved in the opposite direction, slipping below $4,400 per ounce with an intraday decline of more than 1%, as some investors took profits on safe-haven positions at elevated levels.

Attack details: two tankers hit while leaving port

According to Marisks, Bahri's ultra-large crude carrier Sidr was struck northeast of Khasab in Oman, while the Sinokor-operated Senegal Prosperity was hit by three projectiles further east. Both vessels were in the process of exiting the Strait of Hormuz. The UK Maritime Trade Operations separately confirmed that a tanker completing an outbound transit reported three attacks, though it did not specify the ship's identity. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the assault.

The previous day, President Trump issued a warning that further strikes on Iran remained a possibility. According to UBS analyst George Redman, that warning pushed Brent crude back above $91 per barrel and triggered a fresh round of bearish steepening in global bond markets.

Crack spreads: the real crisis is in refined products

The true pressure in this energy market cycle is not entirely driven by crude itself, but is concentrated in the refined products segment. US diesel crack spreads surpassed $100 per barrel by 6 am Eastern Time, a clear reflection of the multiple shocks hitting refining capacity. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has reduced seaborne diesel and gasoline shipments from the Gulf region, while Ukraine's sustained one-way drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have created overlapping pressure on global refining markets in late summer.

Goldman Sachs energy expert Daan Struyven noted in a fresh report that diesel sits at the heart of the supply squeeze. He and colleague Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote: "The mounting hits on Middle East and Russian refineries are further compressing already stretched global refining capacity, pushing product margins to new highs. Diesel remains the core of this rally."

Global refinery runs are 6 million barrels per day below normal

The Goldman team's quantitative estimates reveal the scale of the supply gap. Struyven and his team estimate that global refinery runs are currently 7 million barrels per day lower than the same period last year, and have averaged nearly 6 million barrels per day below seasonal norms since March. The timing is telling: around March, the US launched Operation Epic Fury, while Ukraine simultaneously intensified its one-way drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. The combined impact of these two fronts has created the structural shortage in global refining capacity we see today.

Tehran signals reconciliation while US sanctions tighten

Beyond the immediate tensions, several diplomatic signals deserve attention. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated clearly on state television: "I declare explicitly that if the US returns to the commitments stipulated in the memorandum of understanding, the Islamic Republic will take reciprocal action immediately." Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent's Operation Economic Outcast continues to advance, with the Trump administration intensifying pressure on Tehran through an expanded sanctions regime. These two tracks running in parallel - the risk of military strikes alongside open diplomatic channels - are making market forecasts increasingly complex. Until there is tangible relief on the supply side, high volatility in the refined products market looks set to persist.