September 22, 2025 - US crude oil production has continued its growth trajectory this year, even as oil prices have fallen to multi-year lows. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, US crude oil daily production reached a historic high of 13.58 million barrels in June 2025, exceeding the previous record from October 2024 by 50,000 barrels per day and surpassing the pre-pandemic peak from 2019 by 582,000 barrels per day. Standard Chartered commodity experts predict that US crude oil production will peak at 14.34 million barrels per day in March 2026. Against the backdrop of pressured oil prices, the robust performance of US crude oil supply reflects the continued resilience and capital advantages of major oil companies.

However, the US oil industry is also showing clear signs of deceleration. EIA data indicates that US crude oil year-over-year growth in June 2025 was only 328,000 barrels per day, while Texas, a major production region, declined by 33,000 barrels per day year-over-year, falling 109,000 barrels per day below its October 2024 peak. This slowdown is not uniform - smaller producers are more affected by declining oil prices, while major oil companies and independent producers continue to expand. Global energy consulting firm FGE notes that despite declining output from small producers, US overall production continued to grow in the first half of 2025, which aligns with their previous forecasts that low oil prices primarily impact higher-cost smaller producers.

FGE further indicates that small producers' production growth momentum stalled in mid-2024 and began declining in the second half of that year. With oil prices falling approximately $15 per barrel from their 2025 highs, small producer output is expected to decline by 200,000-250,000 barrels per day year-over-year in the second half of this year. However, growth from major oil companies will be sufficient to offset this decline. FGE has simultaneously raised its global crude oil production forecasts for 2025 and 2026, increasing them by 130,000 barrels per day to 109.1 million barrels per day and 230,000 barrels per day to 110.4 million barrels per day, respectively. The EIA maintains its forecast in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that US crude oil and condensate production will decline to 13.16 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, due to low oil prices suppressing drilling and completion activities. The divergence in production data suggests the market is entering a phase of supply-demand rebalancing.

On the other hand, developments from OPEC+ are also impacting the market. Eight member countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, significantly lower than the previous increases of 555,000 barrels per day in August and September, and 411,000 barrels per day in June and July. This move means OPEC+ is beginning to unwind the second round of 1.65 million barrels per day production cuts more than a year ahead of schedule, while the first round of 2.5 million barrels per day cuts was fully lifted in April. Despite this, oil market reaction has been muted, with Brent crude futures rising modestly from a monthly low of $65.50 per barrel to $66.99 per barrel, while US WTI crude increased from $61.62 per barrel to $62.69 per barrel. Standard Chartered analysts believe the market had already anticipated limited new supply increases, as compensatory production cuts from some OPEC+ member countries would offset the production increases.

OPEC+'s decision reflects a cautious and flexible policy approach, emphasizing gradual capacity release while preserving space to pause or reverse production increases when necessary. For investors, this means oil prices may continue to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium to short term, while the competition between oil-producing countries and market demand will continue to dominate the direction of crude oil prices.