Coal stocks surged during the morning trading session. As of press time, CHINA COAL (01898) rose 4.41% to HK$9.94; YANKUANG ENERGY (01171) gained 4.01% to HK$10.38; CHINA SHENHUA (01088) climbed 1.9% to HK$38.64; and KINETIC DEV (01277) advanced 1.57% to HK$1.29.

On the news front, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, raw coal production by above-scale industrial enterprises reached 390 million tons in August, declining 3.2% year-over-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to July. For the January-August period, raw coal production by above-scale industrial enterprises totaled 3.17 billion tons, representing a 2.8% year-over-year increase.

Guosheng Securities noted that looking ahead to 2025, without considering the impact of "anti-involution" on production, and based on an analysis of coal mine capacity releases scheduled for 2025, thermal coal production is expected to maintain growth momentum, potentially reaching around 3.88 billion tons. However, the growth rate is projected to further narrow to approximately 1.4%.

Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that the coal sector has experienced significant cumulative declines this year, with institutional holdings hovering at low levels, healthy chip structure, and non-congested trading. The coal price decline during the off-season and bottom-seeking phase has basically concluded, and the release of demand from non-power coal consumption peak season and winter heating is expected to catalyze further upward movement in coal prices. In the short term, pressured by poor interim earnings performance and the siphoning effect of technology sector rallies, the sector faces headwinds but is nurturing new allocation opportunities. The firm recommends active positioning to capture coal investment opportunities.