T. Rowe Price's Global Investment Grade Bond Chief and Portfolio Manager Steve Boothe stated that the U.S. economy remains resilient, with recent energy price shocks viewed as temporary. The firm expects the Federal Reserve to maintain a generally accommodative policy stance. According to the firm, the U.S. Treasury market is transitioning towards a more market-driven structure. Currently, making large directional bets on duration is less attractive; instead, focusing on positioning along the yield curve and employing relative value strategies is preferable. T. Rowe Price notes that while U.S. economic momentum is slowing, it is not entering a recession. Economic activity is cooling from the highs driven by prior fiscal stimulus, but resilient private sector balance sheets continue to provide support. The labor market appears stable on the surface but is gradually cooling, with leading indicators like job turnover showing more pronounced signs of softening. Monetary policy is somewhat restrictive regarding interest rates, though part of this tightening effect is offset by changes in the Fed's balance sheet, resulting in overall financial conditions closer to neutral. The Federal Reserve has been noted for previously misjudging inflation drivers. As economic growth weakens, the Fed might pivot to interest rate cuts earlier and more proactively. Recent energy price shocks are expected to be viewed as temporary and demand-related factors rather than reasons for further policy tightening, with the Fed's overall policy bias likely remaining accommodative. Overall, the policy mix suggests the economy is on a path toward a "soft landing." Short-term interest rates are expected to turn more dovish, while authorities will continue normalizing the balance sheet to restore more typical market functioning mechanisms. T. Rowe Price also mentioned that the U.S. Treasury market is shifting from a past era dominated by the Fed, which suppressed term premiums and volatility, towards a new, more market-driven paradigm. In this new environment, Treasury supply and the impact of private sector balance sheets on valuations will become increasingly critical. This transition may elevate term premiums and structurally lead to a steeper yield curve. Consequently, the reliability of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset is diminishing. Interest rate volatility is rising, and correlations with risk assets are more prone to periodic breakdowns. Particularly in an environment of rising real rates and term premiums, periods of positive correlation between Treasuries and risk assets like equities and credit may become more common, weakening diversification benefits. In this context, making significant directional bets on duration is less appealing. Greater emphasis should be placed on yield curve positioning and relative value strategies for deployment. The function of U.S. Treasuries is gradually evolving, increasingly being used for liquidity management and risk hedging rather than as a primary source of return.