As the traditional consumption season kicks off, various online and offline promotional activities have been intensely launched across the country, energizing the consumer market. Service consumption continues to grow rapidly, and new consumption formats are continuously evolving. Experts interviewed suggest that China's consumer market will maintain a steady growth trend in the fourth quarter. The Ministry of Commerce previously stated that this year, the consumer market is expected to reach a new milestone of 50 trillion yuan.
Driven by daily wear and gifting demands, since the launch of JD.com's "Double 11" at 8 PM on October 9, the enthusiasm for gold jewelry consumption remains strong, with sales of gold pendants and bracelets doubling year-on-year. During the peak wedding season around National Day, sales of diamond necklaces surged over five times year-on-year, and sales of diamond rings tripled.
Cultivated gemstones have become the new favorites in the market, with cultivated diamonds and sapphires seeing sales growth exceeding tenfold. A responsible person from JD.com told reporters that within the first hour of Tmall's "Double 11" launch, 80 brands recorded sales surpassing 100 million yuan. On JD.com, more than 52,000 brands saw a year-on-year sales increase of over 300%. On Douyin, over 100,000 products experienced a 300% year-on-year growth in live sales.
Since October, major platforms like JD.com, Tmall, Douyin, and Xiaohongshu have sequentially launched "Double 11" promotions, with gold and jewelry, autumn-winter apparel, and beauty products performing particularly well, reflecting a robust online consumption growth. Such ongoing online consumption trends illustrate the vitality of new consumption formats.
In the first three quarters, online retail sales grew by 9.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-August, with growth accelerating since May. New formats and models in the consumption sector are continuously expanding. According to Yu Jianxun, Director of the Trade Statistics Division at the National Bureau of Statistics, emerging formats that meet residents' demand for quality, personalization, and experience are performing well. In the first three quarters, retail sales from warehouse membership stores, collective stores, and unmanned shops all maintained double-digit growth.
The effectiveness of the trade-in policy for consumer goods is becoming apparent, aiding residents in upgrading their vehicles and home appliances. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the sales growth rate for household appliances and audiovisual equipment exceeded 25% in the first three quarters, with sales of high-efficiency appliances continuing to rise sharply. According to statistics from the Automotive Circulation Association, new energy vehicle sales surpassed 8.5 million units in the first three quarters, up by 24.4% year-on-year.
The retail sales of categories covered by the trade-in policy, such as home appliances, furniture, office supplies, and communication equipment, continued to show double-digit growth, reflecting the sustained transmission of policy dividends in key areas. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the consumption growth rate is expected to largely maintain the levels of the third quarter due to the high base from the same period last year, said Cheng Shi, Chief Economist at ICBC International, in an interview.
The potential for service consumption continues to be released. The 138th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair), the world’s largest comprehensive offline trade show, recently held its first phase, attracting a large number of overseas buyers and boosting inbound tourism and consumption. According to Guangzhou Customs, from October 1 to October 20, the amount of tax refund applications for outbound tourists at Guangzhou Port exceeded 27 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120%, setting a historical high.
Lian Ping, Chief Economist at the Guangfa Research Institute, expressed that consumption growth exhibited multiple drivers in the first three quarters. Inbound consumption continues to expand, and with the ongoing effectiveness of the tax refund policy for outbound tourists, the "Buy in China" campaign is being conducted in an orderly manner, accelerating the transformation of inbound traffic into consumption growth. Currently, service consumption has become a vital engine for driving growth, with relevant policies having a noticeable impact.
Hao Yongqian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, stated at a recent regular press conference that efforts will focus on fostering new growth points for service consumption, innovating diversified consumption scenarios, and continually optimizing service supply to promote steady expansion of service consumption. "By 2024, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure to per capita consumption expenditure is expected to reach 46.1%. Looking to the future, we should expand diversified service supply, innovate and enrich consumption scenarios, and further unlock the development potential of service consumption," said Chen Lifeng, a researcher at the Market Circulation Research Center of the State Council Development Research Center, in an interview.
The scale of consumption is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan. With an outlook toward the fourth quarter, China’s consumption is set to continue growing, and the market size is expected to expand steadily. Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, mentioned during a recent thematic press conference on the high-quality implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan that China’s consumer market remains the second largest globally, with an average annual growth of 5.5% in total retail sales over the past four years. This year, it is expected to surpass 50 trillion yuan.
Experts interviewed suggested introducing targeted policies to further invigorate the dynamics of commodity consumption and unleash the potential of service consumption to comprehensively expand domestic demand. "From a policy perspective, short-term strategies can continue to focus on tax reduction, fee reduction, and fiscal subsidies, especially supporting low-income groups and rural residents to enhance consumption capacity. Meanwhile, from a medium to long-term perspective, we can accelerate the improvement of the social security system, promote income distribution reform, support the development of service consumption, and further unlock domestic demand potential," said Cheng Shi.
Chen Lifeng believes that during the upcoming period, the domestic market will increasingly dominate the circulation characteristics of the national economy, and the internal demand potential for economic growth will continue to be released. Policy emphasis should shift more toward benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption, creating a sustainable growth mechanism in consumption so that residents can consume, dare to consume, and are willing to consume.