The coming weeks will provide Wall Street's top strategists and global investment institutions with increasing clarity on whether the latest round of global stock market "super bull run" will continue, or if this epic bull market rally is destined to derail. The U.S. non-farm payroll report, key inflation readings, AI chip leader Broadcom's earnings report, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will all be released within the next 14 trading days, setting the tone for global retail and institutional investors returning to markets after their summer break.

Additionally, the market volatility index appears calm on the surface but harbors underlying turbulence, with the "triple threat" of non-farm payroll + CPI data + Fed rate decisions potentially triggering market "storm days." The S&P 500 index, which has repeatedly hit record highs this year, just recorded its weakest monthly gain since July 2024, while September has historically been the worst-performing month of the year for this index.

Meanwhile, China's Shanghai Composite Index broke through a 10-year high, becoming the real protagonist in global summer markets. The MSCI World Index has also repeatedly hit new highs this year and currently sits near all-time highs. Therefore, global stock markets seem to be at a crucial crossroads, with data to be released over the next 14 trading days being particularly critical for investors to predict stock market trends.

**U.S. Stock Market Faces Its Most Challenging Month**

It's worth noting that as these pivotal 14 trading days approach, volatility seems to have disappeared. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (also known as the VIX fear gauge) has only exceeded the technically significant 20-point level once since late June. The S&P 500 index has gone 91 consecutive trading days without a 2% selloff, the longest streak since July 2024. The benchmark index touched another all-time high of 6,501.58 points on August 28, up 9.8% year-to-date and surging 30% since its April 8 low.

"Investors are right to maintain caution in September," said Thomas Lee, head of market strategy research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. "After a long period of inaction, the Federal Reserve is preparing to embark on a dovish rate-cutting cycle. However, this series of major data releases before the Fed's rate decision will significantly impact rate cut expectations, making position adjustments tricky for traders."

Lee, a long-time stock market bull known as a "Wall Street oracle," expects the S&P 500 to decline 5% to 10% in the fall, followed by a rebound to between 6,800 and 7,000 by year-end, potentially breaking through the key 7,000-point milestone.

**Critical Data Series Affects "AI Faith" and Rate Cut Expectations**

Following AI chip giant NVIDIA's earnings release last week, another AI chip leader - Broadcom, second only to NVIDIA in AI chip shipments - will announce its earnings on Friday Beijing time. This year, Broadcom has single-handedly driven significant rallies in global chip stocks and broader technology stocks multiple times, making Broadcom's earnings crucial for global investors' "AI faith" and technology stock momentum.

Broadcom is one of the core chip suppliers to Apple and other major tech companies, while also being a core supply force for Ethernet switch chips for large global AI data centers and AI ASICs - customized AI chips crucial for AI training and inference. Broadcom, the strongest force in the AI ASIC field, has used multiple quarters of strong performance and optimistic guidance to tell investors that under the "ultra-low-cost AI large model computing paradigm" led by DeepSeek, AI inference computing demand continues to show explosive growth, and the so-called "artificial intelligence computing surplus" is market overthinking.

As U.S. tech giants steadfastly invest massive amounts in artificial intelligence, the biggest beneficiaries include not only NVIDIA but also AI ASIC giants like Broadcom, Marvell Technology, and Taiwan's Alchip Technologies. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and even generative AI leader OpenAI are all partnering with Broadcom or other ASIC giants to update and iterate AI ASIC chips for massive inference-side AI computing deployment.

**Employment Data Could Determine Rate Cut Magnitude**

Also on Friday Beijing time, the U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released, with ADP employment data coming Thursday. Both datasets are crucial for market rate cut expectations, with non-farm payrolls potentially determining whether markets further price in a 50 basis point Fed rate cut in September to begin a new cutting cycle.

Economists currently expect non-farm job growth to remain below 100,000 for the fourth consecutive month, with August non-farm payrolls expected to add only 75,000 jobs - the weakest employment period since 2020. The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly in August.

The previously released August non-farm data painted an extremely weak picture of the U.S. labor market: companies added only 73,000 jobs in July, far below economists' expectations of around 110,000. Simultaneously, the initial values for non-farm employment in the previous two months were unexpectedly revised down by nearly 260,000, a downward revision of an unprecedented 90%. The latest unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in June to 4.2%.

Goldman Sachs strategist teams indicate that Fed Chairman Powell has given the green light for September rate cuts, but August non-farm employment data will be the key factor determining the magnitude and pace of cuts. If job growth falls below 100,000, it will help confirm September rate cuts.

**Unusually Calm VIX Raises Concerns**

"Wall Street oracle" Lee is not the only one holding short-term skepticism. Some of Wall Street's most optimistic bulls are increasingly concerned that this eerie calm signals negative contrarian signals in the face of seasonal weakness, particularly worrying that this strange and calm VIX trend could signal sudden short-term severe volatility.

Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that over the past thirty years, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.7% decline in September, with monthly declines recorded in four of the past five years.

Major market catalysts will begin with Friday's monthly non-farm employment report. In early August, this data became a global focus when the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down May and June non-farm employment numbers by nearly 260,000 combined. This adjustment triggered fierce criticism from former President Donald Trump, who fired the agency's top statistical official and accused it of manipulating data for political purposes.

Following this, inflation data will take center stage next week, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be released on September 11. On September 18 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision and quarterly rate projections, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell.

Swap market pricing shows about a 90% probability of Fed rate cuts at this meeting, with expectations of up to 125 basis points of easing policy priced in by September 2026.

**Market Positioning and Risks**

The core issue with turbulent market risk is that this calm and extreme positioning have historically often presaged VIX volatility indicator spikes. This is what happened in February: the S&P 500 peaked amid concerns about the Trump administration's tariff plans, volatility jumped, catching professional traders off guard who had bet on low volatility in 2025.

In July 2024, traders were also shorting VIX at extreme levels, followed by the August unwinding of yen carry trades that completely upended global markets. VIX climbed to near 16 last Friday after touching 2025 lows, but this Wall Street "fear index" remains about 19% below its one-year average.

Of course, there are fundamental reasons for S&P 500 upside expectations. Despite facing Trump's tariff measures, the U.S. economy maintains relative resilience, especially with strong corporate profit growth continuing. Bank of America's latest global fund manager survey shows investor bullishness on U.S. stocks at its highest level since the February peak, with cash levels falling to a historic 3.9%.

However, the problem presents cyclically: as the S&P 500 continues climbing, investor concerns about overvaluation are also increasing. The index currently trades at 22x forward P/E ratio. Since 1990, the market has only been more expensive at the peak of the internet bubble and during the tech frenzy period following the 2020 COVID pandemic trough.

"We are buyers of large tech giants," said Tatyana Bunich, president and founder of Financial 1 Tax. "But these stocks are very expensive now, so we're holding some cash, waiting for any appropriate pullback to add positions."

Another prominent bull, Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni, questions whether the Fed will actually cut rates in September, which would at least hurt stocks in the short term if cuts fail to materialize as expected. His reasoning is that inflation remains a persistent risk.

"I expect this stock market rally to stall soon," Yardeni said. "Markets are pricing in a lot of positives in advance. Once CPI runs hot and employment data is strong, traders might suddenly decide rate cuts aren't a sure thing, triggering brief selling. But when traders generally realize the Fed can't keep cutting rates, and the reason behind it is actually good news - the U.S. economy remains strong - stocks will resume their upward trend."

If employment data surprisingly strengthens, and inflation indicators, while still above the Fed's anchored 2% target, don't show obvious warming under tariff pressure, it would undoubtedly drive investor expectations for a "Goldilocks" soft landing for the U.S. economy. The so-called "Goldilocks" U.S. macroeconomic environment refers to an economy that's neither too hot nor too cold - just right, maintaining moderate GDP and consumer spending growth with long-term stable low inflation trends.