CLSA has maintained its "Outperform" rating on PRADA (01913) with a target price of HK$48, citing an attractive risk-reward profile. The brokerage forecasts approximately 1% organic sales growth for PRADA in the first quarter of this year at constant exchange rates, excluding Versace. After incorporating the consolidation impact of Versace, estimated at around 10%, and a foreign exchange headwind of approximately 700 basis points, reported sales are expected to increase by about 6% year-over-year.

By brand, CLSA projects retail net sales growth of 0.5% for Prada and 3% for Miu Miu at constant exchange rates. While Prada continues the growth momentum seen in the fourth quarter of last year, Miu Miu faces challenging comparisons due to a high base, particularly given its significant exposure to the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. The brokerage anticipates wholesale and licensing businesses will maintain positive year-over-year growth.

Regionally, performance in the Americas and Asia-Pacific remains solid, while Europe shows weakness due to reduced tourist traffic, and the Middle East faces considerable pressure. With the high comparison base for Miu Miu expected to ease gradually by 2026 and Prada's investments beginning to yield results, sales performance is projected to strengthen in the second half of the year.