The two leading Chinese L4 autonomous driving companies, Pony AI Inc (PONY-W) and WeRide, are set for a head-to-head battle in Hong Kong's capital markets after securing listing approvals in October 2025. Both companies launched global offerings on October 28, with pricing scheduled for November 4 and trading commencing on November 6 on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

This capital market duel, extending from U.S. listings to Hong Kong, marks a critical juncture for both companies' commercialization efforts while highlighting the industry's challenges of high R&D costs and divergent market views. Their contrasting approaches—from fundraising structures to investor bases—reveal strategic differences, compounded by a crowded IPO pipeline and cautious investor sentiment that adds uncertainty to the race for "Hong Kong's first Robotaxi stock."

Pony AI's fundraising target could triple WeRide's, with its base offering of 41.96 million shares potentially expanding to 55.49 million if overallotment options are exercised. At a maximum price of HK$180 per share (17.2% premium to its latest U.S. close of $19.76/ADR), Pony could raise up to HK$8.5 billion (US$1.1 billion). Notably, the company is issuing less than 50% of its approved share quota, preserving flexibility to manage dilution. In contrast, WeRide plans a full quota offering of 88.25 million shares (expandable to 100+ million) at HK$35/share (27.5% premium to its $10.60/ADR U.S. close), targeting just HK$2.8 billion—less than one-third of Pony's potential haul. This funding gap could significantly impact R&D capabilities in this capital-intensive sector.

Investor confidence diverges sharply: Pony secured US$120 million in cornerstone investments from five institutions including long-term fund Eastspring, while WeRide attracted zero cornerstone backers—a rare scenario reflecting market skepticism about its slower commercialization and 32% post-IPO U.S. stock decline. Pony's U.S. shares have risen 52% since listing, giving it a US$7 billion market cap versus WeRide's US$3.3 billion.

Listing paths further differentiate the rivals: WeRide, with 2024 revenue of HK$390 million (below HK$500 million mainboard threshold), opted for Hong Kong's Chapter 18C "Specialist Technology" route requiring 50% institutional allocation—a challenge given its lack of cornerstone support. Pony, with HK$580 million 2024 revenue, qualified for traditional listing. Lockup terms vary too: Pony's cornerstone investors agreed to six-month holds, while WeRide's founder pledged a three-year voluntary lockup.

Controversially, both set maximum offer prices at 17-27% premiums to U.S. levels, breaking with the typical Hong Kong IPO discount practice. This dampens retail interest, especially amid a crowded October IPO calendar featuring 11 listings including heavyweights like Sany Heavy Industry and Seres Group offering deeper discounts. Institutional caution also runs high year-end, particularly toward cash-burning autonomous driving firms.

Pony faces additional headwinds: July 2025 short-seller Grizzly Research accused it of technological deficiencies, operational inefficiencies, and financial deterioration—allegations that linger despite rebuttals. During roadshows, WeRide's CFO and Baidu's IR team publicly criticized Pony for disparaging competitors, exposing industry tensions and raising ethical concerns.

Financially, WeRide shows advantages with consistent 30%+ gross margins (2024: 30.7%, 1H2025: 30.6%)—double Pony's 15-16% range. Analyst forecasts suggest WeRide may overtake Pony in 2025 with US$89.6 million projected revenue (vs. Pony's US$82.1 million) while narrowing losses to US$200 million (vs. Pony's US$220 million), signaling stronger operational momentum.