On February 28th, the skies over the Middle East were once again lit by conflict. According to the latest reports, the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran. This sudden event has immediately pushed global financial markets to a critical juncture. For many investors, the situation feels eerily familiar. Less than a year ago, in June 2025, a U.S. airstrike ordered by then-President Donald Trump on Iranian nuclear facilities triggered a storm of volatility in global markets.

Historical patterns suggest that such geopolitical conflicts typically cause sharp short-term market swings. The magnitude of their lasting impact, however, hinges crucially on whether the conflict escalates into a prolonged war that threatens oil supplies.

**Crude Oil: The Battle Between Geopolitical Shock and Supply Reality** Looking back at the June 2025 scenario, the market's reaction to the conflict was a dramatic rollercoaster. In the initial phase (June 13-22), Israeli airstrikes on Iran were followed by direct U.S. bombing of nuclear facilities. The escalation in the Middle East, a key hub for global oil supply, instantly ignited oil prices. Brent crude surged past $81 per barrel amid extreme market fervor. Some analysts even warned that prices could break the $100 per barrel threshold if Iran moved to block the Strait of Hormuz. At the time, approximately 20% of global seaborne crude oil trade passed through this strait, making its security a core variable for oil prices.

In the later phase (June 23-24), the narrative reversed rapidly. Iran's retaliatory strike on a U.S. base was interpreted by the market as "measured" and "calculated," notably avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. This was followed by a U.S.-Iran ceasefire announcement. Market focus instantly shifted from geopolitical risk back to the fundamentals of supply surplus. The result was a sharp plunge in oil prices, with WTI crude falling more than 10% from its peak in just a few days, erasing all gains accrued during the conflict.

Today's airstrikes will undoubtedly cause a sharp spike in crude oil's "geopolitical risk premium" in the short term. A gap-up opening for oil prices is highly probable. However, history indicates that the subsequent price trajectory depends entirely on the nature of the conflict. If this action replays the "limited conflict" script of June 2025—with clear targets, mutual restraint, and the Strait of Hormuz remaining secure—oil prices will likely retreat after an initial spike, as traders "buy the rumor, sell the news," refocusing on global demand and OPEC+ supply policies.

Conversely, if the situation escalates, with Iran launching a fierce retaliation that threatens oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, $100 per barrel oil would no longer be an alarmist prediction, posing a new, severe challenge to global inflation.

**Gold: A Shining Safe Haven, But For How Long?** The June 2025 conflict reaffirmed gold's status as a safe-haven asset during turbulent times. On the first day of the conflict, June 13, spot gold prices rose over 1%, breaking above $3,400 per ounce and approaching then-record highs. Although gold experienced a volatile, peak-and-trough pattern as tensions eased and U.S. stocks rebounded, it managed to hold firmly at elevated levels throughout the event, demonstrating notable resilience.

It is predictable that news of today's airstrikes will immediately trigger safe-haven demand, leading to a fresh surge in gold prices. Investors are likely to flock to gold, as they did in 2025, to hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. Whether gold can sustain a medium-term uptrend, however, again depends on the conflict's duration. If hostilities subside quickly, some safe-haven flows may return to risk assets, causing gold to relinquish部分 of its gains.

It is worth noting that compared to June 2025, the current global macroeconomic backdrop is more favorable for gold. The trend of "de-dollarization," ongoing gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and deteriorating U.S. fiscal deficits provide long-term support for the metal. Therefore, even if this conflict proves short-lived, any pullback in gold prices may be relatively shallow.

**U.S. Stocks: Short-Term Jitters or Long-Term Buying Opportunity?** For U.S. equity investors, geopolitical conflicts often spell short-term anxiety, but historical experience suggests opportunities can emerge after the initial panic. Recalling the "Black Friday" of June 13, 2025, when conflict erupted, the three major U.S. stock indices all fell sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging nearly 800 points. Airline stocks were particularly hard hit due to concerns over rising fuel costs.

However, the market narrative flipped within days. As Iran demonstrated "restraint" and ceasefire talks emerged, investors realized oil supplies were not materially impacted, leading to a rapid recovery in sentiment. By June 23, U.S. stocks staged a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 1%. Historical data shows that equity markets often stabilize and rebound within two months following the outbreak of Middle East conflicts.

Therefore, for U.S. markets today, opening sessions will likely face selling pressure, especially in sectors sensitive to oil prices like airlines and transportation. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is expected to climb concurrently. The critical question is whether this will present a trading opportunity. If these airstrikes ultimately prove to be another "limited action" akin to June 2025, without causing substantive damage to the global oil supply chain, the dip in U.S. stocks could indeed represent a "golden buying opportunity."

**Navigating the Fog: Keep a Close Watch on the Strait of Hormuz** History does not repeat itself exactly, but it often rhymes. As noted by macro strategist Michael Ball, the market's ultimate direction hinges on the nature of this strike. If it is a "pre-announced" strike on military facilities, followed by de-escalatory gestures from both sides and no disruption to oil production and transport, the market may experience sharp short-term volatility before calming down. Oil and gold would likely spike then retreat, while U.S. stocks could rebound after an initial decline.

If, however, the strikes target Iranian leadership, triggering political instability and long-term chaos in oil supply expectations, the market would enter a sustained risk-off mode. Oil and gold would receive prolonged support, trading at elevated levels, while U.S. stocks would face persistent pressure.

In summary, the market's core concern is not the conflict itself, but whether it leads to an actual disruption in oil supplies. For investors, closely monitoring the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent statements from U.S. and Iranian officials will be key to determining the market's future direction. Latest reports indicate that U.S. military action against Iran is expected to continue for several days.