Nomura Securities highlighted in a report released on the 5th that the global memory market is entering an unprecedented "Triple Super-Cycle," with demand for DRAM, NAND, and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) expected to surge simultaneously in 2026.

According to market sources, Nomura forecasts that driven by AI infrastructure development and a rebound in traditional server investments, the global memory market could grow by 98% year-over-year to $445 billion in 2026, expanding further to $590 billion by 2027.

The report emphasizes that this super-cycle will persist until 2027, primarily fueled by a supply-demand imbalance due to robust demand growth and limited capacity expansion. Nomura projects DRAM and NAND demand to rise by 30% each in 2026, while HBM demand could spike by 63%. With constrained supply, prices are expected to surge sharply—DRAM and NAND average selling prices (ASP) may jump 46% and 65%, respectively, restoring memory chipmakers' operating margins to historical highs.

Beyond AI servers, Nomura identifies the recovery of the general-purpose server market as another key driver. As major tech firms resume investments in traditional cloud servers, demand for related memory (e.g., DDR4/DDR5) is anticipated to grow ~50% in 2026. Concurrently, rising AI inference workloads are boosting data center demand for high-performance storage, with enterprise SSDs (eSSD) likely doubling next year—accelerating NAND inventory drawdowns and price hikes.

**AI & General-Purpose Server Synergy Drives HBM and DRAM Demand** Nomura attributes this super-cycle to dual demand from AI and general servers. In AI, HBM4 demand will ramp up in 2026 with Nvidia’s Rubin GPU platform launch. SK Hynix is expected to begin HBM4 shipments in Q1 2026, followed by Samsung and Micron in Q2. Additionally, ASIC suppliers' capacity expansions will reduce HBM makers' reliance on Nvidia from 2026 onward, mitigating overcapacity risks.

For general servers, after 2023’s investment slump and 2024’s modest recovery, Nomura predicts 20%-30% growth in tech giants’ 2026 investments, tightening commodity DRAM supply.

Persistent shortages—due to strong demand and HBM’s production priority—could push DRAM operating margins to ~70% during 2026-2027.

**Data Center Shift Ignites NAND & eSSD Markets** eSSDs are emerging as NAND’s primary growth driver, projected to account for ~40% of total NAND demand in 2026. Nomura notes that AI’s shift from training to inference workloads is spiking demand for real-time responsive storage, even causing HDD shortages and accelerating SSD adoption.

QLC technology’s cost-efficiency and TCO advantages further bolster SSDs. Driven by traditional/AI data centers and HDD supply constraints, eSSD demand may exceed 100% growth in 2026, lifting NAND industry margins from breakeven to 30%-40%.

**Supply Bottlenecks: Cleanroom Shortages Limit Expansion** Despite soaring demand, supply growth remains physically constrained. Nomura stresses that cleanroom availability will cap global memory capacity expansion until mid-2027. This bottleneck is already evident: since October, DRAM spot prices have surged 200%-300%, while NAND wafer prices rose 140%.

Even if manufacturers expand, equipment installation to chip output takes significant time. Transitioning to 1C-nm nodes may temporarily reduce wafer output by 10%-15% with lower initial yields. HBM4’s higher wafer consumption further squeezes commodity DRAM capacity, ensuring no oversupply concerns before 2027.

**Downstream Cost Pressures May Curb Consumer Electronics Demand** While memory suppliers thrive, PC and smartphone makers face challenges in 2026. Nomura warns that soaring memory costs will significantly raise BOM expenses, squeezing profits or forcing price hikes.

PC shipments may drop 2.8% YoY in 2026, with smartphones down 1.7%, as cost pressures and early replacement demand taper off. Low-to-mid-range smartphones (where memory costs exceed 15% of BOM) will be hit hardest. Apple, with its high margins, bargaining power, and long-term supply agreements, remains relatively insulated, with its supply chain likely sustaining moderate growth in H1 2026.