JPMorgan released a research report indicating that AIA (01299) delivered solid performance last year, supported by a share buyback program exceeding expectations and management's confidence in growth quality. The bank made minor adjustments to several financial forecasts, including raising projections for cash generation from existing life insurance policies to between $7.7 billion and $9.6 billion for 2026 to 2028, reflecting improved capital efficiency prospects. Core earnings and Contractual Service Margin (CSM) balance forecasts were also slightly increased to account for sustained profit growth trends. JPMorgan reduced AIA's target price from HK$115 to HK$112 while incorporating a $1.7 billion large-scale buyback plan into its forecasts and reaffirmed an "Overweight" rating. The report noted that AIA's new business economic benefits have improved, with the new business value to new business investment ratio rising to 3.8x last year from 3x and 3.1x in 2023/2024, indicating stronger future cash generation capability. The bank projects new business value of $6.2 billion and $7.4 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively, surpassing market expectations of $6.3 billion and $7.2 billion. With continued product mix enhancements, the CSM balance is expected to grow from $72 billion at the end of this year to $92 billion by the end of 2028, supporting robust compounding effects on the balance sheet. Although JPMorgan lowered its new business value forecasts for 2026 and 2027 due to macroeconomic volatility, relatively weak trends in other markets (excluding India), and sales impacts in China, it still anticipates double-digit new business value growth over the next three years. The group announced a buyback budget of $1.7 billion for this year, with JPMorgan estimating a total shareholder return of approximately 4% over the next 12 months, providing downside protection, though no additional buybacks are expected after 2026.