Option Focus | IREN’s $1.30 Million Deeply OTM Call Bet Targets 218% Upside by 2028, While Bullish Flow Dominates with Zero Bearish Trades

Option Witch
08/15

IREN Ltd closed at USD 44.06, down 1.56%.

IREN options lit up with a decisively bullish tilt as a massive $1.30 million bet on a deeply out-of-the-money call stole the spotlight. The flow was overwhelmingly positive, with total bullish premium hitting $2.13 million against zero bearish trades. This conviction, spanning from a near-the-money medium-term call to a long-dated 140 strike swing-for-the-fences play, signals strong institutional confidence in a significant upside re-rating.

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Options Indicators

IREN’s implied volatility is 102.19%, but its IV percentile is only 6.37%, which indicates that despite the headline IV looking very high in absolute terms, current option pricing sits near the low end of its own historical range. Combined with an IV/HV ratio of 0.69, this suggests implied volatility is running below realized volatility, and overall the options appear relatively cheap rather than richly priced. The Call/Put volume ratio is 2.60.

Large Trades

A CALL buy worth $1.30 million was the largest displayed trade, with 1,700 contracts purchased at the 140.0 strike expiring on 2028-01-21. With IREN referenced at $44.06, this call was deeply out-of-the-money, making it a high-conviction bullish directional bet that requires substantial upside over a long-dated horizon. The buyer appears to be targeting a major upside re-rating rather than near-term incremental gains, using long optionality to secure leveraged exposure while capping downside at the premium paid.

A CALL buy worth $0.80 million was the second highlighted trade, consisting of 1,563 contracts bought at the 45.0 strike expiring on 2026-09-18. With the stock at $44.06, this strike was only slightly out-of-the-money, which suggests a more achievable upside thesis than the far-dated 140 call while still expressing a clearly bullish view. Strategically, this looks like a directional upside position aimed at medium-term appreciation, with the buyer paying premium to participate in a breakout above the current trading level.

Overall sentiment in IREN large trades was decisively bullish, with total bullish flow at $2.13 million versus bearish flow at $0.00 million, leaving a net difference of $2.13 million to the bullish side. The directional read is clearly bullish, as the flow was dominated by call buying, including both an aggressive long-dated upside shot and a nearer-the-money medium-term call purchase, while even the smaller put sale also leaned constructive. Taken together, the large-trade profile points to traders positioning for upside rather than protection, reflecting confidence in continued share-price strength.

Strategy Reference

For a low assignment probability, a premium seller could consider the 25.00 put strike expiring in the near term, which lies far out-of-the-money given the current $44.06 price and the overwhelmingly bullish flow profile.

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