A look at the major financial events for the week of October 12 to October 18, with all times listed in Beijing time.
The financial calendar highlights several key items to watch next week.
First, attention will be on the IMF annual meetings and a closing speech by Waller. The IMF and World Bank annual meetings span the entire week, with global growth, inflation, interest rates, and government debt as core topics. The IMF will release its World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report during the same period, alongside the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting. Attendees include central bank governors from the UK, Europe, Canada, and South Korea. Federal Reserve Chair Waller will speak at the conclusion of the meetings.
Second, focus will be on China-US inflation data and international developments. On October 14, the US September CPI will be released, with Bloomberg expecting an increase in headline inflation, partly driven by higher energy prices. On the same day, China's September CPI and PPI will be released first, followed by trade data at noon, and China's financial data is also expected. Additionally, the Fed's Beige Book will be released early Thursday morning. On international trade, the US extra port fees on Chinese ships take effect next week; shortly after, the European Council meeting may discuss its trade stance toward China. According to CITIC Securities research, autos are the sector with the greatest flexibility and concentration of interests in this round of negotiations. On geopolitics, Trump reversed his position, saying he "might" take military action against Iran before the midterms.
On industry developments, Anthropic will hold a pre-IPO investor day, with a formal IPO marketing launch possibly as early as the week of November 9. Also, Apple will hold a smart home event, expected to unveil a new generation of Apple TV 4K, HomePod mini, and an all-new home hub device. On October 15, Tesla will showcase its next-generation Roadster, an event originally scheduled for October 1 that was postponed due to severe weather.
On earnings and AI developments, ASML and TSMC will report third-quarter results consecutively, while the US third-quarter earnings season kicks off with major banks including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. On the AI model side, StepFun will open-source Step 5 Preview, and Qwen's next-generation AI glasses will go on sale. On the regulatory side, the UK Parliament will hold an AI safety hearing with participation from four major US AI companies. Additionally, AI industry events are密集——the OCP Global Summit in San Jose, SEMICON West in San Francisco with an advanced packaging summit, Nvidia's China Developer Day and the Bay Area Semiconductor Expo domestically. On the consumer side, JD.com and Taobao's "Double 11" kicks off, alongside the Canton Fair.
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Economic Indicators
US CPI, PPI
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September CPI on October 14 at 20:30, with the previous reading at 3.4% year-on-year. Bloomberg expects headline inflation to rise, partly driven by higher energy prices. Continuum Economics expects it to rise to 3.7%, with core at 2.4%.
China CPI, PPI, Trade Data, Financial Data
The National Bureau of Statistics will release September CPI on October 14 at 09:30, with August up 0.8% year-on-year. September PPI will also be released the same day, with August at 3.8% year-on-year; together they reflect the pace of repair in domestic demand prices and industrial product prices.
The General Administration of Customs will release September trade data at noon on October 14, with August exports up 25% year-on-year and imports up 28.2%. The data falls on the same day the US port fees on Chinese ships take effect, offering a window to observe the rush to export and re-export trends. Additionally, China's latest financial data may also be released.
Financial Events
IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings
The IMF and World Bank annual meetings will be held in Bangkok from October 12 to 18. The World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report will be released on the 13th, and the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held concurrently on the 15th. The Bank of England has the fullest attendance, including Governor Bailey, Deputy Governor Breeden, Chief Economist Pill, and rate-setter Greene. The fireside chat between Federal Reserve Chair Waller and Georgieva on the 16th is the focal point. The Bank of Japan will not be in Bangkok; instead, it will hold market operations meetings and a deputy governor speech in Tokyo during the same period.
Continued Geopolitical Focus: Trump Reverses Position, Says He "Might" Take Military Action Against Iran Before Midterms
Recently, at a White House press briefing, when Trump was asked why he postponed action against Iran until after the midterms rather than acting immediately, Trump said he "might" act immediately. According to Xinhua, Trump also said on the 10th that the US "might" join Saudi Arabia's strikes against the Houthis, adding "we will consider it carefully." This is the most direct US statement of involvement in the conflict to date.
Fed Beige Book Release, Dense Schedule of Official Speeches
The Fed's Beige Book will be released early Thursday morning, with Fed officials Hammack, Waller, and Collins speaking in succession.
Apple Smart Home Event
Apple announced it will hold a "Welcome Home" event on October 13, expected to unveil a new generation of Apple TV 4K, HomePod mini, and an all-new home hub device. This is also Apple's latest update in the smart home space since John Ternus became CEO last month.
Anthropic Pre-IPO Investor Day
On Thursday, October 1, US Eastern Time, Bloomberg cited sources saying Anthropic will hold a Pre-IPO investor day with potential investors on October 14, having sent invitations to a group of institutional investors; it may launch formal IPO marketing as early as the week of November 9, aiming to begin trading before US Thanksgiving.
UK Parliament AI Safety Hearing
The UK Parliament's Business, Innovation, Science and Trade Committee has written to Meta, Google, OpenAI, and Anthropic, inviting them to attend an AI safety evidence hearing on October 13. Representatives from the UK government's AI Safety Institute are also invited. The highlight is the first time four labs will be questioned together before the same legislative body.
US Imposes Extra Port Fees on Chinese Ships
According to Global Times, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officially issued CSMS #66427144 on October 3, confirming that starting October 14, extra fees will be imposed on Chinese-owned, operated, or built vessels entering US ports, as well as all foreign-built car carriers.
European Council Meeting May Discuss Trade Stance Toward China
According to CITIC Securities research, the European Council meeting on October 15-16 may discuss its trade stance toward China. Since the auto industry is the sector with the greatest flexibility and concentration of interests in this round of negotiations, the firm believes this negotiation will have the most significant impact on the auto sector; the EU is expected to contribute a total net profit space of about 20 billion to 30 billion yuan for Chinese automakers in 2026.
Tesla Next-Generation Roadster
Tesla posted on X that due to severe weather, the Roadster event has been rescheduled to October 15. Tesla had previously planned to officially unveil the long-delayed next-generation Roadster on October 1. Reports suggest the new car may feature a cold gas thruster system from SpaceX.
2026 Nobel Prize in Economics
The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics is scheduled to be announced on October 12 (Monday) at 17:45 Beijing time.
EU Foreign Ministers Meeting
On October 12, EU foreign ministers will meet in Luxembourg to discuss the Russia-Ukraine conflict, developments in the Middle East, and the security implications of further EU enlargement.
140th Canton Fair
The 140th Canton Fair opens on October 15 and runs through November 4. According to Sina, as the largest trade fair, the market is watching export orders (home appliances, new energy vehicles, mechanical and electrical products) and overseas demand signals.
US Treasury Quarterly Dealer Questionnaire
The US Treasury's quarterly dealer questionnaire is scheduled for release on October 16, 2026, followed by the quarterly refunding announcement on November 4. Market participants will closely watch whether the questionnaire includes questions on reducing long-term bond issuance, Treasury bill market capacity caps, or buyback mechanisms.
iPhone Duo Pre-Orders Open
Apple's release plan shows the iPhone Duo will open for pre-order on October 16, with an official launch on October 23.
JD.com and Taobao 2026 "Double 11"
JD.com's "Double 11" will fully kick off on October 12 with in-stock sales. Overall, the promotion period is divided into launch, opening, special, peak, and return phases. The 2026 Taobao Tmall "Double 11" is divided into pre-sale and in-stock phases, with pre-sale starting at 20:00 on October 15 and in-stock sales from 20:00 on October 20 to 23:59 on November 13.
AI Large Model Tracking
Two confirmed nodes for domestic models next week: StepFun will officially open-source Step 5 Preview on October 15, and StepFun's terminal will release its first agent phone STEPX Neo on the 13th; Qwen AI glasses will go on sale on the 13th. Rumors suggest Gemini 4.0, Claude Opus 5.2, and GLM-5.4 will be released, but none have been officially announced.
AI Summit and Industry Event Tracking
Next week's AI industry events center on computing infrastructure: the OCP Global Summit runs from the 12th to 15th in San Jose, SEMICON West runs from the 13th to 15th in San Francisco with the APHI Summit, Nvidia China Developer Day runs from the 15th to 16th in Suzhou, and the FlagOS Open Computing Conference runs from the 17th to 18th in Beijing. On the policy side, watch the UK Parliament's AI safety hearing on the 13th.
Earnings
US Stocks and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) Earnings
The third-quarter earnings season kicks off on October 13 with major banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. Yuanta Securities said the two key points for bank stocks are net interest margin outlook and fourth-quarter credit loss provision estimates. The heaviest event of the week is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM)'s third-quarter earnings call at 14:00 on the 15th, following ASML's earnings the next day, with equipment and manufacturing segments consecutively validating AI demand within a week.
A+H Share Earnings
Next week marks the start, not the peak, of A-share third-quarter reports — the first from Shanghai will be released by Youyan New Material on the 13th, followed by Ganfeng Lithium on the 15th and Hikvision on the 16th, with the密集 disclosure period in late October.
Transsion Holdings Hong Kong IPO Listing
Transsion Holdings plans to raise over HK$3.3 billion through a Hong Kong IPO, with shares expected to begin trading on October 15.
Major Events Alert (Week After Next)
Key events for the week after next (October 19-25) are flagged in advance:
October 19: 2026 Financial Street Forum annual meeting opens in Beijing
October 20: Nvidia GTC Conference (Berlin)
October 27-28: Fed FOMC meeting (the week after)
The week after next (October 19-25) sees the earnings season enter its peak:
October 19: China Jushi, Hygon Information
October 20: CATL, China Mobile, Han's CNC, CSSC Specialty Gas
October 21: Netflix; China Telecom
October 22: Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Procter & Gamble, Vertiv — all; Shennan Circuits, JCET, Han's Laser
October 23: Ping An Bank, EVE Energy; Western Digital