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Rebar: Yesterday, the rebar market continued its upward trend. The rebar 2701 contract closed at 3,126 yuan per tonne, up 16 yuan per tonne or 0.51% from the previous trading day, with open interest decreasing by 21,800 lots. Spot prices saw slight increases with improved trading volumes. Tangshan Qian'an billet prices rose 20 yuan per tonne to 3,020 yuan per tonne, while Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar prices increased 10 yuan per tonne to 3,150 yuan per tonne. National construction material trading volume reached 109,300 tonnes. Recently, the fifth round of coke price increases has been implemented, widening steel mill losses and leading to more production cuts and maintenance. Additionally, the China Iron and Steel Association issued a proposal for the industry to comprehensively carry out self-disciplined production control and inventory reduction, strengthening expectations for further output cuts. However, August data showed expanding declines in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment, with no notable improvement in September's end-user demand, keeping overall market sentiment weak. With supply remaining at low levels, short-term rebar prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias.

Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2701 traded within a narrow range yesterday, closing at 709 yuan per tonne, up 1.5 yuan per tonne or 0.21% from the previous close, with trading volume of 225,300 lots and open interest increasing by 5,100 lots. Port spot prices were stable to slightly higher, with Rizhao Port's 60.8% PB powder flat at 673 yuan and Carajas fines up 3 yuan to 841 yuan. On the supply side, shipment volumes have returned to high levels, with port arrivals rising for two consecutive periods, continuing to release supply pressure. On the demand side, steel mill profitability has dropped to historical lows, intensifying production cut pressures. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand for iron ore remains unchanged, although phased mill restocking and high freight rates provide some support. Short-term iron ore futures are expected to continue narrow-range fluctuations.

Coking Coal: Coking coal futures rose yesterday, with the 2701 contract closing at 1,616 yuan per tonne, up 28 yuan per tonne or 1.76%, and open interest increasing by 14,363 lots. In the spot market, Jiexiu main coking coal (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) held steady at 2,260 yuan per tonne; Ganqimaodu port's Mongolia #5 raw coal fell 6 yuan to 1,650 yuan per tonne, while Mongolia #3 washed coal rose 10 yuan to 1,810 yuan per tonne. Some Shanxi mines have halted production after completing annual and quarterly production quotas, with frequent safety inspections across regions. Several Lvliang mines have again suspended operations for rectification, and repeated production stoppages mean supply is unlikely to expand significantly, with domestic supply declining modestly. On the import side, Ganqimaodu port has seen daily crossings of around 600 trucks recently, with limited sellable resources and traders maintaining firm quotes. Coking plant losses have eased noticeably, with some plants raising operating rates by 5%-10%. Some plants still face tight raw material procurement, and coke supply recovery remains slow. After earlier restocking, plants have reduced enthusiasm for chasing higher prices, with most maintaining existing feedstock inventory levels. Short-term coking coal futures are expected to trade in a range.

Coke: Coke futures advanced yesterday, with the 2701 contract closing at 2,062 yuan per tonne, up 10 yuan per tonne or 0.49%, while open interest decreased by 873 lots. In the spot market, Rizhao Port's quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke rose 20 yuan to 1,930 yuan per tonne. Coking profitability has improved, boosting production enthusiasm, though only a few plants have resumed operations at small scale. Most plants show little inclination to increase output, keeping overall operating rates at low levels. The supply situation has not loosened substantially, with plants maintaining smooth production-sales operations and extremely low inventory levels, supporting firm pricing attitudes. End-user demand remains relatively lackluster, with rebar blast furnace losses mostly exceeding 100 yuan per tonne. High raw material prices continue to squeeze steel mill profit margins, limiting acceptance of expensive coke and capping further significant spot price increases. Short-term coke futures are expected to consolidate.

Manganese Silicon: On Wednesday, manganese silicon futures were largely unchanged, with the main contract settling at 5,794 yuan per tonne, up 0.03% from the previous session, while open interest fell by 3,064 lots to 278,500 lots. The ferrous complex showed divergent movements, with manganese silicon opening lower but closing roughly flat. On the fundamental side, cost support remains in place as manganese ore traders show little willingness to cut prices, with downstream purchasing mainly on a need-basis, keeping ore prices relatively firm. Weekly manganese silicon output has increased for five consecutive weeks, rising 2.79% week-on-week to 179,200 tonnes. On the demand side, steel tenders continue, though pricing volatility has been significant given recent futures swings. A major Hebei steel mill set its September manganese silicon tender price at 6,050 yuan per tonne, while East China and South China tenders have retreated to around 5,900 yuan per tonne. Inventory among 63 surveyed manganese silicon producers declined notably week-on-week but remains at historically high levels for this period. Overall fundamentals provide no clear directional catalyst, and manganese silicon futures are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with market sentiment to be monitored.

Ferrosilicon: On Wednesday, ferrosilicon futures weakened amid fluctuations, with the main contract settling at 6,052 yuan per tonne, down 0.1% from the previous session, while open interest decreased by 17,465 lots to 306,100 lots. The ferrous complex showed divergent patterns, with ferrosilicon's price center drifting slightly lower. On costs, electricity prices moved divergently: Ningxia saw a minor decline of about 0.01 yuan/kWh, while Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia saw increases of 0.1 yuan/kWh, 0.02-0.03 yuan/kWh, and 0.01 yuan/kWh respectively. Supply-side pressure continues to build, with incremental output mainly from Ningxia and Gansu. Demand remains supported by ongoing steel tenders, though weekly ferrosilicon demand from sample steel mills was roughly flat week-on-week and lower year-on-year. Magnesium ingot output was also roughly flat week-on-week, providing limited demand momentum. Inventory among 60 surveyed ferrosilicon producers rose by 2,720 tonnes week-on-week to 81,040 tonnes, an absolute level at the high end of historical ranges for this season. With mixed costs, gradually increasing supply pressure, limited demand drivers, and rising inventories, fundamentals offer no directional push. Short-term ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue fluctuating, with market sentiment closely watched.

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