Overnight, the precious metals market experienced a slight uptick. COMEX gold closed with a gain of 0.28%, maintaining a relatively strong performance amid a mix of influencing factors.
On the macroeconomic front, the final reading for the US fourth-quarter real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth came in at 0.5%, below the market expectation and the preliminary figure of 0.7%, indicating an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in economic expansion. However, the actual impact of this data on the Federal Reserve's policy stance is limited, with market attention shifting more toward future inflation trends. Concurrently, the US core PCE for February showed a year-on-year decline to 3.0%, down slightly from the previous 3.1%, reflecting a notable cooling in service sector inflation. Nevertheless, focus is gradually turning to March's inflation figures to gauge the likely direction of monetary policy.
In geopolitical developments, signals pointing toward de-escalation continue to emerge. The Israeli Prime Minister has directed the prompt initiation of direct talks with Lebanon, while simultaneously stating that a ceasefire in Lebanon will not occur until Hezbollah is disarmed. Former President Trump has called for reduced strikes on Lebanon and expressed strong optimism about reaching a peace agreement with Iran. Reports indicate that Iran will send representatives to Pakistan to participate in negotiations, though it insists that any ceasefire must include Lebanon. It is important to note that the frequent shifts in positions by both the US and Iran remain the most significant source of uncertainty, with the navigational status of the Strait of Hormuz continuing to be a key market focus.
Overall, the geopolitical landscape is evolving toward negotiation and easing, fostering short-term market optimism and providing some support for precious metals. However, the unpredictable stances of the US and Iran suggest that the situation could change abruptly at any moment. Strategically, traders are advised to adopt a cautiously bullish approach, while closely monitoring negotiation progress and developments in the Strait, and preparing contingency plans to manage potential volatility.