In September 2025, China's express delivery sector handled 16.88 billion parcels, marking a 12.7% year-on-year increase, while total volume for the first nine months reached 145.08 billion parcels, up 17.2% YoY. Industry revenue rose 7.2% YoY in September, though average revenue per parcel fell 4.9% YoY. For January-September, revenue grew 8.9% YoY, with per-parcel revenue down 7.1% YoY. Notably, the decline in per-parcel revenue narrowed both YoY and month-on-month in September, signaling easing price competition amid industry-wide "anti-internal competition" measures.
Guotai Haitong highlights that these measures are mitigating competitive pressures, with e-commerce express delivery profits expected to recover in H2. Future profit flexibility hinges on sustained price hikes, warranting close monitoring of postal regulatory oversight. Key takeaways:
**Volume Growth**:
- **Industry-wide**: September parcel volume surged 12.7% YoY; January-September volume jumped 17.2% YoY, exceeding the postal regulator’s full-year growth forecast of 8%, driven by lightweighting trends and e-commerce promotions.
- **E-commerce players**:
**Market Concentration**:
The CR8 index rose to 86.9 in January-September 2025, up 1.7 points YoY, reflecting accelerated consolidation.
- **E-commerce segment**:
**Pricing Trends**:
- **E-commerce players**: September per-parcel revenue for
**Regulatory Impact**: Following the State Post Bureau’s July directive against "internal competition," base prices in Yiwu and Guangdong were raised by ¥0.2 and ¥0.4, respectively. Guotai Haitong expects these measures to foster long-term healthy competition and natural industry consolidation.
**Investment Outlook**:
Favor SF Holding for its resilient growth and e-commerce express players like