Lithium sector stocks declined collectively. As of press time, GANFENGLITHIUM (01772) fell 7.7% to HK$47.12; TIANQI LITHIUM (09696) dropped 6.83% to HK$45.28; CATL (03750) declined 6.24% to HK$548.5.

On the news front, the supply and demand dynamics in the lithium industry have been intensely contested recently. Industrial Futures noted that for lithium carbonate, it's important to recognize that demand improvement is accompanied by continuous supply releases, with massive lithium salt refining capacity enhancing the supply elasticity of lithium carbonate. Currently, weekly lithium carbonate production has surpassed 20,000 tons, with single-week output reaching historical highs. Among this, spodumene-sourced lithium carbonate production approaches 13,000 tons, with increased production from spodumene extraction lines compensating for the reduced output from brine and lepidolite sources due to earlier shutdowns at Qinghai salt lakes and Ganxiawo mines.

Compared to 2024, current weekly production has increased by 7,796 tons relative to last year's average, representing a 61.29% increase. The firm pointed out that since mid-to-late August, structural inventory changes involving upstream destocking and downstream proactive restocking have reflected relatively positive actual demand growth. The submission of reserve verification reports by Yichun mining companies for review will continue to influence market expectations regarding resource supply in mid-October, providing support for lithium prices before the event concludes.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Ganxiawo mine is set to resume production, intensifying supply growth pressure once again. Supply growth is expected to exceed demand growth, keeping lithium carbonate prices under pressure, with price fluctuations centered around 70,000-75,000 yuan per ton.