GF Securities: Investment-Driven Performance & New Policy-Driven Value Propel Insurers' Q3 Earnings Beyond Expectations

Stock News
11/05

GF Securities released a research report indicating that listed insurers' net profits attributable to parent companies for Q1-Q3 2025 grew as follows: China Life (60.5%) > NCI (58.9%) > PICC P&C (50.5%) > PICC Group (28.9%) > CPIC (19.3%) > Ping An (11.5%), with Q3 alone delivering robust growth. For the full year, steady equity market gains and relatively low Q4 baselines for some insurers are expected to sustain high growth momentum.

Looking ahead to 2026, floating returns from dividend insurance and bank branch expansions are projected to drive new policy growth, while improved interest spreads and expense ratios may lift value margins, supporting stable value growth. Meanwhile, stricter pricing discipline in non-auto insurance and relaxed pricing coefficients for NEV insurance could optimize combined ratios (COR), keeping P&C premium growth steady.

**Key Highlights:** 1. **Profit Surge**: Equity market rallies and optimized asset allocations boosted investment yields, with NCI/CPIC/China Life reporting annualized total investment returns up +1.8pct/+0.7pct/+1.0pct YoY. China Life and NCI outperformed peers due to higher FVTPL equity exposure and growth-oriented allocations, while PICC P&C benefited from dual improvements in underwriting and investment profits.

2. **Net Assets**: Q3 net assets rose sequentially, led by NCI (20.5%) > China Life (19.5%) > PICC Group (10.2%) > Ping An (4.5%) > CPIC (0.8%).

3. **Life Insurance**: Q3 new policies surged on product repricing, expanding NBV growth. YTD NBV increases: NCI (+50.8%, non-comparable), PICC Life (+76.6%), Ping An (+46.2%), China Life (+41.8%), CPIC (+31.2%). Agent headcounts also rebounded, with China Life and Ping An up 2.5% and 4.1% QoQ.

4. **P&C Insurance**: Lower catastrophe losses and pricing reforms drove COR improvements. Premium growth ranked: Ping An P&C (7.1%) > PICC P&C (3.5%) > CPIC P&C (0.1%), with CORs at PICC P&C (96.1%) < Ping An P&C (97.0%) < CPIC P&C (97.6%), down YoY by 2.1pct/0.8pct/1.1pct.

**Investment Recommendation**: Given stronger-than-expected Q3 results and potential margin recovery, GF Securities recommends overweighting insurers, highlighting NCI (601336.SH, 01336), China Life (601628.SH, 02628), CPIC (601601.SH, 02601), CHINA TAIPING (00966), Ping An (601318.SH, 02318), PICC Group (01339), PICC P&C (02328), and AIA (01299).

**Risks**: Equity market volatility, declining long-term rates, and frequent natural disasters.

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