On January 30, the global gold market is at a historical peak defined by a combination of structural demand and safe-haven sentiment. According to the outlook, with the multiple overlapping factors of investment demand, central bank strategic purchases, and geopolitical uncertainty, gold prices are recording their strongest monthly performance since 1982. Currently, the international major bank UBS has significantly revised its forecast, sharply raising its target price for most of 2026 from $5,000 to $6,200. This upward revision not only reflects a market-wide reassessment of the precious metal's value but also signals that gold is becoming a core tool for hedging against policy turbulence and fiscal pressures anticipated in 2026.

Entering 2026, gold's upward momentum appears unstoppable. Relevant data indicates that gold's year-to-date gain has surpassed 25%, continuing the epic bull market trend from last year. On Thursday, the price hovered around $5,344.98; although it experienced a slight correction from the $5,400 level touched the previous trading day, the overall upward trend remains solid. It was observed that the latest statistics from the World Gold Council show that global gold demand in 2025 historically broke through the 5,000-ton mark. Within this surge, investment activity has been the undeniable engine, with ETF holdings surging by 801 tons and purchases of physical bars and coins also hitting a 12-year high, reaching approximately 1,375 tons.

The resilience of gold demand is further elevated within central bank allocation strategies. Although central banks' total gold purchases last year amounted to 863 tons, a moderation from previous extreme records, this level remains high from a historical perspective. Taking Poland as an example, its move to raise its gold reserve target from 550 tons to 700 tons sends a clear signal to the market: sovereign institutions are shifting their gold allocation from a purely "price-sensitive" approach to a "strategically-oriented" one. The analysis suggests that even in the face of consecutively record-high gold prices, the buying willingness of such institutions continues to exhibit remarkable rigidity.

Looking ahead, the market's tug-of-war between bulls and bears will revolve around the pace of the Federal Reserve's policy and the geopolitical landscape. The outlook concludes that UBS's optimistic scenario target even touches $7,200, while the pessimistic floor is around $4,600; this wide volatility range indicates that 2026 will be an exceptionally challenging year. Although gold prices might see a moderate pullback to around $5,900 after the US midterm elections as some uncertainties subside, its core appeal as an "all-weather safe-haven asset" remains unchanged. It is recommended that investors, while focusing on the $6,200 target, should pay close attention to subtle shifts in the interest rate environment, seeking long-term allocation opportunities for gold assets amidst the volatility.