Orient Securities has released a research report forecasting MOBVISTA's (01860) 2025–2027 revenue at $2.06 billion, $2.67 billion, and $3.73 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits attributable to shareholders of $88 million, $131 million, and $219 million. Based on comparable company valuations, the firm assigns MOBVISTA a 38x PE multiple for 2026, implying a market cap of $4.98 billion (HK$38.76 billion at an exchange rate of 7.78 HKD/USD) and a target price of HK$24.63 per share, warranting a "Buy" rating. Key insights from Orient Securities include:

**Domestic Programmatic Ad Leader Driven by Data-Algorithm Flywheel** Unlike traditional ad agencies, AI-powered programmatic advertising offers three core advantages: 1) **Algorithm Efficiency as Alpha**: Improved ad return on ad spend (ROAS) through algorithms drives budget allocation growth, capturing both market expansion (beta) and efficiency gains (alpha). 2) **Strong Flywheel Effect**: Algorithm enhancements rely on data accumulation from ad placements, while ad scale expands via algorithmic advancements. 3) **Competitive Edge via Algorithm Optimization**: Growth stems from elevating unit traffic value and attracting long-tail advertisers, reducing reliance on direct competition.

MOBVISTA ranks among the top three global players in programmatic ads. Orient Securities is bullish on both the sector’s blue-ocean potential and the company’s growth fueled by its data-algorithm flywheel.

**IAP Smart Algorithm Launch Signals Volume-Price Upswing** Currently focused on in-app advertising (IAA) for games, MOBVISTA rolled out Hybrid/IAP ROAS smart bidding products in April and July 2025, leveraging historical ad data to expand into in-app purchases (IAP). IAP targets smaller, more payment-diverse audiences, demanding higher algorithmic precision and yielding superior ROAS and margins. The gaming market’s IAP monetization—4.6x larger than IAA—positions MOBVISTA for volume-price growth as its IAP algorithms mature. Post-Q2 2025, the firm has observed robust user acquisition trends in mid/hardcore games, with sustained high growth expected post-algorithm optimization.

**Non-Gaming Ads Unlock Long-Term Potential** Beyond gaming, non-gaming markets—particularly overseas—offer larger opportunities. In 2024, e-commerce ad spend alone was 2.7x that of gaming ads, with non-gaming mobile app ad placements surging over 50% (excluding short dramas) in 2025. MOBVISTA’s Target CPE smart bidding product for non-gaming categories, launched in 2024, is gaining traction. With penetration below 1%, significant expansion potential remains, supporting long-term revenue growth.