Preview of OpenAI Developer Day: What Are the Rumored "Consumer AI Products"?

Deep News
10/05

OpenAI is set to host its developer day event on October 6th, with market expectations widely anticipating the company will unveil new consumer-grade AI agent products and potentially launch an AI browser to challenge Alphabet's Chrome dominance. These potential releases would mark a significant transformation for OpenAI from reliance on ChatGPT's subscription model toward a diversified product portfolio.

According to a recent research report from UBS Group AG, OpenAI is seeking substantial growth beyond its current $13 billion revenue base, targeting an ambitious goal of $200 billion by 2030. To achieve this objective, the company must develop new growth engines beyond its core ChatGPT business.

UBS analysts, through extensive industry research, predict that the October 6th OpenAI developer day will primarily focus on consumer AI product launches. Beyond the already-released instant checkout functionality and personalized AI agent ChatGPT Pulse, travel booking agents are considered a key focus area.

The research report also notes that multiple industry observers predict OpenAI may launch an AI browser challenging Chrome, further integrating user data and product entry points. With 95% of its 700 million users still being free users, an advertising revenue model appears imminent, painting a more diversified profit outlook for OpenAI.

**ChatGPT: OpenAI's Growth Engine**

According to UBS, based on financial data, approximately 80% of OpenAI's revenue currently comes from ChatGPT's core subscription services.

Reports indicate that OpenAI achieved $4.3 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025, exceeding its entire 2024 annual revenue, positioning the company to reach its $13 billion revenue target for 2025, representing nearly triple growth compared to 2024.

ChatGPT's user growth trajectory has been remarkable: weekly active users grew from 200 million last year to the current 700 million, a 250% year-over-year increase. This growth rate nearly matches OpenAI's total revenue growth rate, confirming ChatGPT's position as the primary growth engine. Following current trends, ChatGPT is expected to surpass the 1 billion user milestone by year-end.

Regarding user structure, OpenAI recently disclosed that its paid enterprise users have exceeded 5 million, up 60% from 3 million in June. If estimates of 35 million total paid users are accurate, enterprise users account for approximately 15% of the paid user base. However, industry observers believe the developer day is unlikely to focus on new enterprise-level features.

The research report states that OpenAI's current API services are expected to generate approximately $2 billion in revenue for 2025, representing 15% of total revenue. However, multiple sources indicate that compared to relying on third parties to build products through APIs, OpenAI prefers to productize its models independently to capture greater value share.

In programming tools, OpenAI may announce functional improvements to its Codex agent. The company has also released video generation tool Sora 2, competing with Alphabet's Veo and Runway in the creative AI space.

**Consumer AI Agents: The Next Growth Point**

UBS states in its research report that based on industry survey feedback, it expects OpenAI to focus on releasing new consumer AI agent products based on ChatGPT.

UBS indicates that ahead of developer day, OpenAI has launched two key products as previews:

Instant Checkout Feature: OpenAI's collaboration with Stripe on a "chat to checkout" service, enabling users to purchase directly from Etsy sellers and Shopify merchants. Following this feature's release, Etsy's stock price rose 16% in a single day, with Shopify up 6%, demonstrating positive market reaction to AI e-commerce integration.

ChatGPT Pulse: As a preview of personalized AI agents, Pulse proactively researches topics and provides curated content based on personalized chat, prompts, and connected applications like Gmail and calendars.

Industry sources also suggest OpenAI may launch more powerful travel booking agents, leveraging its model's training advantages in travel-related data.

**AI Browser: New Competitive Battlefield**

Multiple industry observers predict OpenAI may launch an AI browser, following Perplexity's Comet browser model. This would serve as an entry point for OpenAI's agent application suite, challenging Alphabet Chrome's dominant position.

UBS states that the current web browser market is dominated by Alphabet Chrome, followed by Apple Safari and Microsoft Edge. The emergence of AI browsers is disrupting this relatively stable landscape.

In 2025, Perplexity launched Comet, Atlassian acquired The Browser Company for $600 million, and Alphabet integrated Gemini AI models into Chrome.

Microsoft has clearly stated it will enhance its existing Edge browser rather than create a new one, implementing agent functionality through Copilot.

In contrast, OpenAI's strategic intent in launching an independent AI browser may be to compete more directly with Alphabet while providing better user data aggregation tools for its consumer agent products.

UBS analyst Stephen Ju believes:

"OpenAI's strategic motivation for developing a browser is similar to Alphabet's original development of Chrome - to ensure a secure channel for users to access their services while collecting valuable user behavior data."

**Advertising Revenue Model on the Horizon**

UBS states that while this developer day is unlikely to announce it, multiple sources are confident that OpenAI will eventually launch an advertising revenue model.

Considering that approximately 95% of the company's 700 million users are free users, advertising could not only directly generate revenue but might also incentivize free users to upgrade to paid ad-free versions.

One industry observer stated: "Regarding advertising, I'm almost certain they'll go this route. What's uncertain is the specific implementation method - whether displaying ads on the same page or more cleverly inserting ads based on questions or prompts."

**Product Expansion Will Impact Alphabet, Meta, and Others**

OpenAI's product expansion will primarily impact existing participants in the consumer internet space (Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft), while compute-intensive new products will benefit infrastructure providers like Oracle.

Consumer Internet Companies: OpenAI's potential new agent products (shopping, personal productivity, travel) as well as AI browsers and advertising business primarily target consumer markets, making the impact on companies like Alphabet and Meta more direct.

Microsoft: Despite their partnership, OpenAI has become a direct competitor in two of Microsoft's key AI application areas - M365 Copilot (through ChatGPT Enterprise) and GitHub Copilot (through Codex and GPT-5). The AI browser launch will further intensify competition.

Infrastructure Providers: Any new products that help OpenAI achieve its financial projections will benefit its cloud computing partners Microsoft Azure, Oracle OCI, and CoreWeave. The more compute-intensive the new products, the more favorable for infrastructure investors.

Enterprise Software Market: If OpenAI primarily focuses on consumer product releases, the impact on enterprise software stocks may be limited. However, OpenAI's internal AI usage video released this week has already affected stock prices of companies like DocuSign (down 12%), HubSpot (down 10%), and Braze (down 12%).

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