The sudden collapse of previously robust gold and silver markets has transmitted bearish sentiment to the energy sector. Since the beginning of 2026, Brent crude prices have climbed nearly 20% to around $70 per barrel, driven by tensions related to Iran. However, on February 2nd, oil prices experienced an intraday drop exceeding 5%. In its latest research report, UBS stated that the core driver of this significant price surge is not a fundamental improvement in supply and demand fundamentals but rather a rise in risk premium triggered by escalating tensions with Iran. UBS emphasized that the sustainability of higher oil prices is highly dependent on the evolution of the geopolitical conflict. Should energy infrastructure in Iran and surrounding regions avoid substantial impact, oil prices face a significant risk of correction, mirroring the pattern seen in June-July 2025—when prices underwent a phased pullback following a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions.

The navigational status of the Strait of Hormuz is a global oil trade "lifeline" and a core risk factor highlighted in this report. Data indicates that over 20 million barrels per day of oil (including crude, condensate, and products) and 20% of global liquefied natural gas transit through this strait, underscoring its critical importance to the global energy supply chain. However, UBS assesses that the probability of a Strait of Hormuz closure currently remains low, primarily because the strait is also vital for Iran's own exports—Iran's limited terminal capacity outside the strait means a closure would severely impact its oil exports and significantly negatively affect major energy importers like Qatar and China, imposing substantial constraints on Iran's actions. The report also warns that if the strait were unfortunately closed, the scale of supply disruption could exceed the impact of the 2022 Russian oil supply disruption, which saw prices soar above $120 per barrel. Although some pipeline capacity exists to bypass the strait, total spare capacity is only about 5 million barrels per day (approximately 4.5 million from Saudi Arabia and less than 0.5 million from the UAE), insufficient to fully offset the supply gap from a closure. Nevertheless, considering the likelihood of the strait reopening, such a shock would probably be short-lived.

As a key risk variable in the oil market, Iran's oil production and export patterns have not shown major deviations. According to International Energy Agency (IEA) data, Iran's oil production has remained stable over recent months, with crude output reaching 3.4 million barrels per day in December 2025, demonstrating strong production resilience. On the export front, Iran's crude exports have retreated from a recent high of 1.9 million barrels per day in October 2025 to around 1.5 million barrels per day, but they remain within a reasonable recent range without a cliff-like decline. The report contends that Iran's substantial production scale and stable export levels make it a significant force influencing global oil market supply-demand balance, with its situation remaining an unavoidable risk factor for the market.

UBS notes that, based on historical experience, energy infrastructure has not been a target in previous conflicts. Last year, U.S. strikes against Iran deliberately avoided energy facilities, and Iran's retaliatory actions also did not target energy infrastructure in surrounding regions. Recent media reports suggest the U.S. administration is focusing strikes on Iranian leaders, security forces, and nuclear and missile programs, rather than facilities related to energy exports, which somewhat reduces the direct risk of supply disruption. Concurrently, regional diplomatic dynamics are also alleviating pressures for escalation. Talks involving U.S., Israeli, and Saudi officials were held on the day the report was released, and Gulf countries have explicitly stated they will not allow their airspace to be used for strikes against Iran, a stance that further limits the potential scope of conflict扩散.

In conclusion, UBS emphasizes that oil prices are inherently highly unpredictable, with volatility influenced by a complex mix of political, geological, and economic factors. Prices exhibit extreme volatility in the short, medium, and long term, a characteristic exacerbated by unforeseen events like natural disasters. The UBS report suggests that next month's OPEC+ meeting may hold greater significance. OPEC+ is scheduled to resume production increases starting in April 2026, but the deadline for the production pause could potentially be extended, with specific decisions depending on the prevailing oil price level and geopolitical developments at that time.