Abstract

Postal Savings Bank of China will report second-quarter 2026 results on August 28, 2026 post-Market; this preview consolidates the bank’s last-quarter performance, current-quarter forecasts, and recent institutional commentary to outline likely revenue, margins, earnings trajectory, and segment dynamics.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, consensus-style indicators point to Revenue of 93.76 billion RMB, EBIT of 96.18 billion RMB, and EPS of 0.22, implying year-over-year growth of 4.72% for Revenue, 159.40% for EBIT, and a decline of 15.38% for EPS; year-over-year EBIT growth embedded in the dataset is flagged high due to base-period effects. The bank’s margin mix is expected to be steady-to-mixed, with limited data on gross margin; adjusted EPS is forecast to soften year over year even as top-line expands modestly. The main business mix remains anchored by personal banking and treasury operations, with a constructive outlook on retail-led fee and interest income stabilization; the most promising segment is indicated to be the treasury and funding-related business at 22.01 billion RMB revenue last quarter with improving throughput and YoY normalization.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Postal Savings Bank of China posted Revenue of 90.67 billion RMB, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 25.73 billion RMB, a net profit margin of 32.78%, and no disclosed gross profit margin; adjusted EPS was 0.07, down 30.00% year over year, while Revenue rose 2.12% year over year. The quarter saw a sharp quarter-on-quarter rebound in net profit attributable to the parent company, with ran-on-month change of 137.28%, suggesting notable sequential normalization in credit costs or non-interest items. Main business highlights show treasury and funding revenue of 22.01 billion RMB and company banking revenue of 0.29 billion RMB, while reported personal banking revenue carried a data anomaly; operationally, the bank continued to lean on retail deposit strength and fee resilience.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main banking franchise

The core franchise this quarter is expected to show moderate top-line growth, with Revenue estimated at 93.76 billion RMB, up 4.72% year over year, and EPS at 0.22, which embeds a year-over-year decline of 15.38%. The forecast suggests net interest income stability offset by lower per-share earnings due to share count effects or compressed spreads. Given the prior quarter’s net profit margin reading of 32.78%, investors will watch whether margin discipline and credit cost normalization can sustain profitability despite an EPS downtick. Management’s delivery versus these markers will likely steer near-term stock performance.

Treasury and funding-related business

Treasury and funding activities are positioned as a key earnings buffer. Last quarter’s revenue contribution was recorded at 22.01 billion RMB, and qualitative reads point to ongoing throughput gains from balance sheet optimization and liquidity deployment. In the current quarter, the contribution from treasury should benefit from yield-curve stabilization and tactical allocation, while the YoY comps remain sensitive to market rate swings. If funding costs continue to ease and asset yields stabilize, the segment can help offset any pressure in retail spreads, helping protect overall revenue growth near the 4–5% band implied by the estimate.

Drivers most likely to move the stock

Earnings sensitivity centers on net interest margin trends, fee income traction in retail services, and credit cost prints. A repeat of the prior quarter’s sequential net profit recovery would reinforce the case for stable profitability even as EPS declines YoY, signaling resilience in the bank’s operating model. Conversely, any slippage in NIM or an uptick in provisions could weigh on the EPS trajectory and overshadow modest revenue growth. Monitoring quarterly disclosure on loan mix, deposit repricing, and asset quality metrics will be essential to interpret whether the forecasted top-line growth can translate into sustainable earnings quality.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary skews constructive overall. Coverage that discusses the upcoming print generally emphasizes the bank’s stable revenue base and the prospect that treasury operations support earnings quality amid mixed retail margin trends, with a majority leaning bullish compared with cautious views. Analysts point to the estimate framework of 93.76 billion RMB in Revenue and 0.22 in EPS as achievable, while highlighting that a YoY EPS decline does not preclude sequential profit stabilization given the prior quarter’s 137.28% quarter-on-quarter improvement in net profit attributable to the parent company. The consensus tilt is that execution on cost of risk and funding cost management can keep returns defensible through the quarter, leaving the stock leveraged to signs of NIM stabilization in the results on August 28, 2026 post-Market.