Coal stocks in Hong Kong witnessed a widespread downturn. At the time of writing, YANCOAL AUS (03668) fell 7.2% to HK$32.46; SHOUGANG RES (00639) dropped 6.96% to HK$3.21; KINETIC DEV (01277) declined 6.35% to HK$1.77; and CHINA SHENHUA (01088) decreased 1.68% to HK$42.18.

The movement follows reports from yesterday where an official from Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources indicated that miners in the country had halted spot coal exports due to a government-initiated production reduction plan. It was noted that the production quotas assigned to major miners last month were 40% to 70% lower than the targets for 2025.

However, according to Zhao Yang, head of the industry-focused platform Coal Jianghu, who has long tracked international coal trade, the interpretation of a "suspension of exports" by some media outlets is a market misunderstanding. He clarified that Indonesia has not implemented a comprehensive export ban; instead, some large mines are temporarily unable to provide quotes or execute spot transactions because their production quotas for the 2026 fiscal year have not yet been finalized.

Calculations by Huatai Securities suggest that the current contraction in Indonesia's spot coal exports would impact China's average monthly thermal coal consumption and imports by just 0.5% and 4.2%, respectively. Given that February 2026 coincides with the Lunar New Year holiday, a period when factories typically wind down operations and coal consumption naturally recedes, the psychological impact on market sentiment is likely to be more significant than any fundamental effect.