Industrial Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report stating that the securities industry's ROE in 2026 will require sustained high market momentum to achieve further growth on a relatively high base. Under neutral assumptions, the report forecasts the industry's 2026 revenue and net profit at RMB 660 billion (+16.1% YoY) and RMB 290.4 billion (+18.8% YoY) respectively.
Top-down regulatory guidance and shifting capital utilization structures are expected to drive a gradual increase in the industry's dividend payout ratio. This universal improvement in dividend yields may present a significant opportunity for valuation expansion. Key insights include:
1. **2025 Performance Review**: - A-shares showed strong performance while securities sector underperformed, with Shenwan Securities II Index gaining 6.1% but trailing the broader market by 11.8 percentage points. - Hong Kong-listed Chinese brokers outperformed. - Improved equity market activity and directional investments supported profits, with 42 listed brokers posting combined revenue of RMB 419.56 billion (+42.6% YoY) and net profit of RMB 169.05 billion (+62.4% YoY) for Q1-Q3 2025.
2. **Industry Reshaping**: - The traditional model of small/mid-sized brokers expanding via equity financing to grow balance sheets is being disrupted. - Four regulatory trends driving consolidation: * Capital-intensive development restrictions * New市值 management rules limiting undervalued brokers' rights offerings * Revised 2025 classification ratings emphasizing ROE * Compensation reforms curbing talent poaching from top firms
3. **Operational Shifts**: - **Top brokers** are building capabilities independent of market volatility through: * Global expansion (e.g., CITIC Securities' international business contributing 20% of profit with 20%+ ROE) * Derivatives-driven balance sheet services (e.g., CICC's stock derivatives income doubling YoY) * Platform-based integrated services - **Mid-sized brokers** must: * Strengthen core brokerage through client base expansion/new models * Develop stable investment mechanisms and teams to weather market cycles
**Risks**: Equity market volatility; tighter regulation; significant credit impairment provisions; fee rate declines.