On February 27th, the global gold market is entering a new, highly volatile phase of growth, with the international accumulation period having quietly concluded. ZFX Shanhai Securities indicates that the current market drivers have shifted from simple asset allocation to a deep hedge against credit system risks. Due to the resonance between excessive leverage in the private equity sector and the continuously expanding debt scale, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy space is becoming severely constrained. This systemic pressure is emerging as a core factor driving the repricing logic for physical gold and silver.
Current macroeconomic data reveals that the debt burden has reached an extremely critical tipping point. The total U.S. national debt has surpassed the $38.5 trillion mark, and projections from relevant institutions suggest that net interest payments could surge to $2.1 trillion by 2036. ZFX Shanhai Securities believes that if potential liabilities, such as underfunded healthcare and social security obligations, are included, the actual fiscal pressure far exceeds the figures on the books. Mathematical model projections suggest that the existing U.S. dollar valuation system can no longer support such a massive debt scale, which will inevitably lead capital towards metal markets with hard currency attributes in search of a rebalancing of asset valuations.
This "sub-healthy" state in the credit domain is also permeating the private markets. Some analysts project that, under extreme scenarios, borrowers disrupted by technological change could drive the default rate in private credit up to 15%. ZFX Shanhai Securities views this situation as fundamentally different from the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, suggesting that simple liquidity injections are unlikely to rescue leveraged companies lacking endogenous growth momentum. As confidence in traditional paper financial assets wavers, gold is not expected to decline alongside the stock market. Instead, a unique "upward crash" phenomenon might occur, where prices experience a pulse-like surge due to the failure of fiat currency credibility as a benchmark.
The supply and demand structure at the physical level is also undergoing dramatic changes. Observations indicate that inventory patterns for industrial silver are shifting from "just-in-time supply" to "defensive hoarding," with many manufacturing companies intercepting physical inventories at the production stage due to fears of supply chain disruption. Simultaneously, the banking system is raising financing thresholds for refiners, and tighter margin requirements are restricting the flow of gold into secondary markets. These micro-level "liquidity bottlenecks," combined with the need for central banks to reset their reserve asset allocations, are collectively pushing up the premium for metals.
From a historical regression perspective, a certain anchoring effect has historically existed between the size of central bank balance sheets and their gold reserves. ZFX Shanhai Securities states that to achieve structural stability in balance sheets, the current gold price remains significantly undervalued. Based on calculations using a historical allocation ratio of one-third, the potential price level for gold should be around $8,000 or even higher. If this ratio increases further, $12,000 could also become a plausible target. As global economic uncertainty continues to loom, gold, as a core asset for capital preservation, is only just beginning the second phase of its structural bull market.