CICC has reiterated its "Outperform Industry" rating for H&H INTL HLDG (01112) with a target price of HK$17.7, citing strong Q3 performance. Revenue surged 28.1% YoY to RMB3.79 billion, driven by better-than-expected growth in infant formula (BNC segment revenue up 90.6% YoY), alongside steady expansion in adult nutrition (ANC) and pet nutrition (PNC) segments.
**Key Highlights:** - **9M25 Revenue:** RMB10.81 billion (+12% YoY, or +12.3% on a comparable basis). - **Q325 Revenue:** RMB3.79 billion (+28.1% YoY), exceeding market expectations primarily due to robust infant formula sales.
**Segment Breakdown:** 1. **BNC (Infant Nutrition & Care):** - Q3 revenue rose 90.6% YoY to RMB1.47 billion, with infant formula sales up 104% YoY to RMB1.23 billion. - Biostime's market share in China's ultra-premium infant formula segment climbed to 17.3% in Q3, supported by investments in maternal-infant channels and e-commerce consumer education. - Probiotics revenue grew 58.8% YoY to RMB180 million, benefiting from strong online and maternal-infant channel performance, alongside stabilizing pharmacy sales.
2. **ANC (Adult Nutrition):** - Q3 revenue increased 5.6% YoY (6.3% comparable basis) to RMB1.8 billion. - China sales grew 15.7% YoY in 9M25, contributing 70.6% of ANC revenue, with Swisse sub-brands meeting expectations. - Cross-border e-commerce revenue rose 23.1% YoY, while Douyin channel sales jumped 77.7%. - Australia/New Zealand Swisse revenue declined 19.4% (comparable basis) due to daigou business adjustments, with impacts expected to persist for 2-3 quarters.
3. **PNC (Pet Nutrition):** - Q3 revenue grew 7.3% YoY to RMB510 million. - Solid Gold China sales rose 8% YoY in 9M25, while North America revenue increased 5.9%, led by Zesty Paws (+12.4% YoY). Solid Gold sales dipped 18.3% amid channel restructuring.
**Outlook:** - Full-year 2025 revenue is projected to grow by high-single to low-double digits, with all three segments maintaining positive momentum. - ANC revenue is expected to rise mid-to-high single digits, BNC over 20%, and PNC low-double digits. - Healthy margin levels are anticipated, with further financial cost optimization.
**Earnings & Valuation:** - Raised 2025/26 net profit forecasts by 5.1%/4.3% to RMB670/790 million, reflecting strong infant formula performance. - The stock trades at 12x/10x 2025/26 P/E. The HK$17.7 target price implies 16x/13x P/E and 29% upside potential.
**Risks:** Weak demand, intensifying competition, slower new product rollouts, and tariff uncertainties.