SHFE Nickel performance: Prices for SHFE nickel rose in the afternoon session today. The main June 2026 contract (2606) opened at 142,590 yuan per ton, reached an intraday high of 145,400 yuan, a low of 141,150 yuan, and closed at 144,990 yuan per ton. This represents an increase of 2,930 yuan, or 2.06%. Trading volume for the main June 2026 contract stood at 261,823 lots.

According to statistics, the price for 1# nickel on May 19th was reported at a range of 140,900 to 143,300 yuan per ton, with an average price of 142,100 yuan per ton, marking a decrease of 1,200 yuan from the previous day. The spot price for 1# nickel was reported at 141,150 to 143,150 yuan per ton, averaging 142,150 yuan per ton, also down 1,200 yuan. In Guangdong, the spot nickel price was reported at 144,350 to 144,750 yuan per ton, with an average of 144,550 yuan per ton, an increase of 500 yuan from the previous day.

Nickel Market Analysis: Against a backdrop of shifting macroeconomic winds, nickel prices have experienced significant volatility. The interplay of supply and demand holds the key, with a rebound and recovery phase warranting close observation. Today's nickel price action followed a "fall then rise" pattern, declining from early high levels before a rapid recovery and rebound in the futures market during the afternoon session. The core dynamics revolved around a tug-of-war between macroeconomic factors and supply-demand fundamentals. The morning decline stemmed from the combined pressure of multiple macro headwinds: a rebounding US dollar, weakening US equities triggering risk-off sentiment, coupled with profit-taking by previous long positions and concerns over downstream demand, which collectively weighed on nickel prices. The afternoon rebound was primarily driven by supply constraints and cost support. Stricter controls on nickel ore supply from Indonesia, coupled with rigidly rising costs for intermediate products and stronger support from the end-of-life battery recycling sector, along with capital flowing back at lower price levels, propelled a rapid recovery in nickel prices. The overall market exhibited a volatile and contested state.

Supply, Demand, and Industry Chain Status The supply-demand dynamics for nickel raw materials and the structure of the industrial chain show distinct differentiation, primarily dominated by supply-side controls and cost support, which have become key variables influencing nickel prices. Upstream nickel ore supply is tight, with Indonesia's ongoing and tightening controls, compounded by transportation disruptions, providing strong cost support from the mining end. Supply of intermediate products is also tight, with limited production leading to scarce circulation, further pushing up processing costs in the mid-stream of the chain. On the recycling front, the steady increase in the volume of recycled end-of-life batteries and industrial scrap has somewhat alleviated supply-demand pressures. However, rising extraction costs constrain the release of this supply. Overall, the industrial chain presents a pattern of "tight upstream, weak downstream." The upward price pressure on intermediate products struggles to be effectively transmitted to the terminal end, maintaining a tight supply-demand balance that fundamentally underpins nickel prices at the bottom.

Nickel Spot Trading: Cautious Sentiment Prevails Amid High-Level Volatility During the period of high-level price volatility, overall spot market activity has been subdued, with downstream purchasing clearly slowing. Stainless steel enterprises are primarily purchasing based on immediate needs, while new energy battery manufacturers, with ample inventories, are widely adopting a wait-and-see approach with cash on hand. Traders' quotations have become more cautious, with the overall premium/discount structure narrowing slightly. The market is awaiting clearer signals of price stabilization, with most transactions concentrated in the lower price ranges.

Short-term Nickel Price Outlook: Range-Bound Trading Expected, Focus on Three Core Variables In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain range-bound, with strong cost support at the lower end and pressure from macro sentiment capping the upside. For the period of May 19th-20th, the market needs to closely monitor Federal Reserve-related statements, US economic data, and the progress of Indonesia's nickel ore policy implementation. The trajectory of the US dollar and supply-side disruptions will be the core variables influencing nickel price fluctuations. In terms of strategy, range-trading is recommended, with a focus on tracking inventory and policy developments.