In recent years, leading domestic courier companies have generally increased their aviation investments. However, among the Tongda group, only YTO Express has actually purchased its own aircraft. While the four major companies are heading in different directions regarding specific operational strategies, they are highly consistent on one thing: artificial intelligence.
Data from the State Post Bureau shows that in the first quarter of 2026, national express delivery business revenue reached 3690.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The business volume was 47.73 billion pieces, up 5.8% year-on-year. This marks the first time in nearly two years that revenue growth has exceeded volume growth.
This development occurs against the backdrop of specialized efforts by the State Post Bureau since the second half of 2025 to curb "involutionary" competition within the courier industry, leading to price increases for express services in multiple provinces.
Among various companies in the courier sector, the "Tongda" group—comprising ZTO Express, YTO Express, STO Express, and Yunda Holdings—are the most directly affected by this round of policy changes. These four companies all utilize a capital-light franchise model, with their customer base highly concentrated in the e-commerce parcel market. Having engaged in the most intense price wars in recent years, the anti-involution policies have the most significant impact on their profit flexibility.
Financial report data for Q1 2026 shows that the three listed A-share Tongda companies that have disclosed results all reported year-on-year net profit growth exceeding 50%. Specifically, YTO grew by 60.76%, STO by 94.3%, and Yunda by 51.67%. Despite the same policy environment, the four companies are developing at different paces.
According to State Post Bureau data, national express delivery volume reached 199 billion pieces in 2025, a 13.7% increase year-on-year. Revenue was 1.5 trillion yuan, up 6.5%—less than half the growth rate of volume. The norm for the entire year of 2025 was earning less per additional parcel delivered, a trend that reversed in the second half of the year.
In July 2025, the State Post Bureau specifically deployed measures to govern "involutionary" competition. Subsequently, multiple provinces raised express delivery prices. The effects of this price recovery began to show in the fourth quarter and continued into Q1 2026.
YTO Express handled 31.144 billion parcels in 2025, a 17.20% year-on-year increase, about 3.6 percentage points higher than the industry average. Its annual net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.614 billion yuan, up 7.14%, leading the Tongda group. In Q1 2026, YTO's net profit was 1.378 billion yuan, surging 60.76% year-on-year. YTO's profit stemmed from continuous cost reduction. Its single-piece delivery cost in 2025 was 1.99 yuan, down 4.95%, a slightly larger decline than the 4.61% drop in single-piece revenue, maintaining a single-piece gross profit of 0.20 yuan. Furthermore, its single-piece transportation cost fell 10.35% to 0.37 yuan.
YTO management stated during an investor exchange on April 23 that the decrease in transportation costs benefited from improved loading rates for trunk line vehicles, which increased by over 7% for the full year 2025, alongside route optimization and smart dispatch systems.
At YTO's annual results briefing on April 30, regarding franchisee profitability improvement post anti-involution policies, Chairman Yu Huijiao stated that industry self-discipline is orderly promoting policy implementation, with multiple provinces introducing and continuously implementing related measures since the start of the year. These measures positively impact the profitability of both courier companies and their franchise networks. When asked about drivers for YTO's volume growth, Yu emphasized the industry's shift from price competition towards competition based on service quality, customer experience, network capability, and comprehensive value. Companies with superior service quality, better customer experience, stronger management, and healthier networks are more favored by the market.
This value competition concretely relates to delivery timeliness. While trucks take three to four days from Eastern to Northwestern China, aircraft deliver in hours. E-commerce platform promises like "next-day delivery" or "next-morning delivery" are impossible without air capacity. Among the Tongda group, only YTO has purchased its own aircraft. By the end of 2025, YTO owned a fleet of 13 aircraft and had cumulatively opened over 160 cargo routes. ZTO and STO primarily rely on ground networks, while Yunda cooperates with over 50 air cargo agents, purchasing air capacity as needed.
Building a self-owned fleet requires significant investment and long cycles, with new routes almost certain to operate at a loss until volume reaches capacity. Currently, YTO's aviation business is still in the investment phase. Its 2025 annual report shows an aviation business gross margin of -7.15%, and international express and parcel service revenue declined over 50%. YTO's total capital expenditure for 2025 exceeded 8.6 billion yuan, the highest in the Tongda group. The approximately 300 million yuan difference between its net profit of 4.322 billion yuan and its express business net profit of 4.614 billion yuan was mainly absorbed by aviation and international operations.
STO Express underwent the most significant changes within the Tongda group in 2025. In November, STO completed the acquisition and consolidation of Danniao Logistics. Danniao's core business is quality express and reverse logistics, operating a standardized direct-operated network offering half-day, next-day, and door-to-door services in multiple cities. Post-consolidation, STO formed a dual-network model combining franchise and direct-operated networks. Its time-sensitive express revenue surged 151.9%, from 2.129 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.364 billion yuan in 2025.
The acquisition also altered STO's revenue structure. Its single-piece express service revenue in 2025 was 2.10 yuan, a 2.3% increase, making it the only Tongda company with positive single-piece revenue growth. Additionally, STO's individual consignment business volume grew over 150% in 2025. In Q1 2026, STO's single-piece revenue further rose to 2.33 yuan; net profit reached 459 million yuan, up 94.3%; and its market share was 13.91%, a 1.05 percentage point increase year-on-year. STO management stated during the 2025 annual results briefing that daily capacity has stabilized above 90 million orders, with 2026 capital expenditure expected to decrease year-on-year. STO also disclosed plans to issue up to 3 billion yuan in convertible bonds to fund转运中心 equipment upgrades and trunk line capacity improvements.
In 2025, STO achieved a net profit of 1.369 billion yuan. However, its express service gross margin was 5.66%, the lowest among the Tongda peers. While the revenue structure improvement from acquiring Danniao is reflected in higher single-piece revenue, whether this sustainably translates into profits remains a key question for STO.
ZTO Express handled approximately 38.5 billion parcels in 2025, a 13.3% year-on-year increase, achieving a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 9.081 billion yuan, up 3.0%. ZTO's most significant change in 2025 was in its direct client business. Unlike the traditional Tongda model where franchises pick up parcels from e-commerce clients, ZTO's direct client business bypasses the pickup franchisee, using its own direct sales team to handle the entire chain from pickup to delivery. In 2025, ZTO's direct client business revenue soared 111.8%, attributed largely to increased e-commerce return volumes, where ZTO directly collects returns from consumers for merchants.
This business segment grew rapidly, but costs increased similarly fast. ZTO's "other costs" related to direct clients jumped from 5.953 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.681 billion yuan in 2025—an increase of 5.728 billion yuan, with 5.533 billion stemming from direct client business expenses. The annual gross margin consequently dropped from 31.0% to 25.0%. ZTO forecasts 2026 parcel volume between 42.37 billion and 43.52 billion pieces, representing 10% to 13% growth.
While YTO invests in aviation, STO acquires Danniao, and ZTO expands direct client operations, Yunda Holdings did not undertake major moves in 2025, instead focusing management efforts on improving single-piece profit and cost efficiency. Yunda's net profit for 2025 was 1.171 billion yuan, a decline of 38.79%. Profit pressure was concentrated in the first three quarters, with Q2 and Q3 net profits at 208 million and 201 million yuan respectively. With industry-wide price recovery in Q4, net profit rebounded to 441 million yuan. This recovery trend continued into Q1 2026: net profit reached 487 million yuan, up 51.67% year-on-year.
In Q1 2026, Yunda's single-piece express service revenue was 2.17 yuan, a 9.77% increase year-on-year—the highest rise among disclosed Tongda peers. Single-piece net profit was 0.09 yuan, an increase of 0.03 yuan. However, its business volume was 5.71 billion pieces, down 6.02% year-on-year. Yunda management stated on April 27 that the volume decrease was "mainly due to proactive optimization of cargo structure and other阶段性因素." Sustained cost control supports this adjustment. Annual report data shows Yunda's four major expenses have declined for three consecutive years, totaling 1.833 billion yuan in 2025, down 7.35%. Its asset-to-liability ratio also fell for the fourth consecutive year to 42.96%. In 2025, Yunda's single-piece core operating cost was 0.61 yuan, down 10.29%, representing the longest duration of cost reduction among the Tongda group.
Since Q4 2025, single-piece prices in the courier industry have continued to recover. Yunda management recently commented that "the level, trend, and sustainability of price recovery in the express delivery industry are better than market expectations." They analyzed this from three aspects: policy, where the "15th Five-Year Plan" recommendations explicitly propose comprehensive rectification of "involutionary" competition; legal, with multiple laws and regulations related to market competition being revised; and supply-demand, where consumer-side recovery is ongoing, express demand continues to grow, while overall industry capital expenditure is contracting.
Since 2026, rising international oil prices have further pushed up courier costs. On March 23, domestic refined oil prices experienced their sixth increase of the year. On the same day, ZTO, YTO, STO, Yunda, and J&T Express simultaneously issued price adjustment notices in Guizhou, raising waybill fees and minimum charges. Following prior adjustments in Sichuan, these five franchise-based courier companies increased end-point delivery fees by 0.1 yuan per parcel and pickup prices by 0.1 to 0.3 yuan in Sichuan, with subsequent adjustments in Yiwu, Yunnan, and Jiangxi.
On May 7, logistics expert Zhao Xiaomin stated that express delivery prices are likely to see further increases in 2024, probably not just once. Zhao believes the initial adjustments were primarily driven by oil costs, constituting the first wave. As delivery fee reforms deepen and courier social security coverage expands, the industry will likely experience another round of price adjustments.
However, the sustainability of price increases hinges on the末端. Price signals in franchise-based courier systems need to transmit from headquarters down to provincial regions, franchises, and finally couriers. YTO's Yu Huijiao stated that anti-involution policies have a "positive impact" on franchise network profitability. Yunda management also mentioned increased support for franchises and frontline couriers, alongside ongoing construction of末端 resources like grid warehouses and consolidation warehouses. The National Postal Work Conference in January 2026 listed "alleviating urgent difficulties for couriers" as one of six annual key tasks. The depth and duration of anti-involution benefits transmitted from corporate reports to末端 outlets is a core variable in this industry recovery.
Zhao Xiaomin also pointed out that the strategy of competing on low prices to grab volume is no longer sustainable. The focus of competition among the Tongda group is shifting towards service quality and product capability. In his view, the battle for industry ranking is far from over, and against a policy backdrop encouraging mergers and acquisitions, the probability of consolidation among leading players is rising.
Based on 2025 annual reports and Q1 2026 earnings call information, the strategic directions of the four Tongda companies have diverged since the anti-involution campaign began.
STO entered the higher-priced market through acquisition. Post-Danniao consolidation, STO gained a direct-operated network in quality express and reverse logistics, increasing the proportion of time-sensitive piece revenue from 4.51% in 2024 to 9.65% in 2025. STO management stated that Danniao's direct network complements STO's franchise network, with comprehensive integration in pickup/delivery networks and resource sharing for individual consignments and reverse logistics.
ZTO is extending vertically along the value chain. The direct client business, while compressing gross margins short-term by bypassing network partners, enhances ZTO's control over customer needs and logistics data. ZTO's 2025 report attributes direct client revenue growth to increased e-commerce return volumes. The growth in return parcels is not unique to ZTO. Live streaming and interest-based e-commerce have significantly higher return rates than traditional platform e-commerce, driven by consumer habits of purchasing first and returning if unsuitable, fueling rapid growth in reverse logistics demand. Danniao Logistics, acquired by STO, has reverse logistics as a core business. Yunda also saw individual consignment and reverse logistics parcels grow 63% in 2025. Incremental sources for express business are extending from "consumer ordering" to "consumer returns," prompting adjustments in the Tongda group's pickup networks and service models.
YTO continues investing in infrastructure. Its self-owned air fleet and Jiaxing global air hub differentiate it from other Tongda companies. Although the aviation business remains loss-making, companies capable of offering air-based time-definite products will have more service options as competition shifts towards quality. YTO management mentioned on April 23 that the smart customs supervision system and AI prediction capabilities at the Jiaxing hub are integrating, improving cross-border and air parcel processing efficiency.
Yunda focuses on repairing network quality and operational efficiency. Management summarized the past year's work as "adjustment, consolidation, optimization": adjusting network structure by optimizing sorting center functions to create a multi-level system with hubs as the core, regional centers as support, and grid warehouses as supplements; consolidating asset and technological advantages by extending headquarters' automation capabilities to outlets; and establishing committees for standardization and process efficiency to optimize management precision.
While the four companies diverge in specific operational strategies, they are highly consistent on one thing: AI. For instance, YTO implemented the industry-specific large language model YTO-GPT for intelligent route planning and sorting center safety monitoring. YTO management stated AI has reduced key route analysis cycles from daily to real-time. STO management promoted "everyone embracing AI," planning a three-step path from data governance to AI architecture building and product output. Yunda also proposed an "AI Full-Stack" strategy, with AI already covering all链路 segments including customer service, arbitration, routing, forecasting, and assisted driving. Yunda management stated that "in the next three years, AI capability will become a critical factor influencing company cost, timeliness, and experience." ZTO has also elevated AI to a core development strategy, "continuing firm strategic investment in artificial intelligence" to drive a comprehensive transformation from "experience-driven" to "algorithm/model-driven."
If the industry price war era was about who dared to lower prices further, the post-price-war era is about who can reduce costs faster and improve service better. AI is the common answer from all four companies currently, but it will take time to see which company first translates technological investment into advantages in cost and timeliness.
For 2026, the State Post Bureau expects national express delivery volume to reach 214 billion pieces, approximately 8% growth, slowing from the 13.7% growth in 2025. Meanwhile, the central and western regions' share of express volume increased to 32% in Q1, with rural markets and reverse logistics becoming new sources of growth.
Furthermore, competition for the Tongda group comes not only from peers. Zhao Xiaomin pointed out that the relationship between e-commerce platforms and courier companies is changing. Emerging platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou are building their own logistics capabilities. The relationship between the Tongda group and e-commerce platforms is evolving from pure carriage to both competition and cooperation. As platforms begin handling their own deliveries, the Tongda group needs to demonstrate their irreplaceability in cost and efficiency.
Zhao Xiaomin believes that under the combined effects of slowing growth, rising costs, and ongoing policy guidance, the internal differentiation within the Tongda group has only just begun.