SpaceX ended the session at $125.33, advancing 9.43%.

Despite the strong price surge, a deep bearish undercurrent gripped SPCX's options market, headlined by an $8.58 million synthetic short and a contrasting $8.82 million bull call spread, revealing a high-stakes tug-of-war that ultimately tilts toward a bearish institutional bias.

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Options Indicators

SPCX’s implied volatility is 116.21%, and with an IV percentile of 97.63%, current option volatility is sitting at the very high end of its historical range. Combined with an IV/HV ratio of 2.25, this suggests the options market is pricing in substantially more future movement than the fund has recently realized, indicating that contracts are currently priced expensively and carry a rich volatility premium.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.14.

Large Trades

A bullish bull call spread worth $8.82 million was the largest featured trade, built by buying 6,000 August 21, 2026 $135.0 calls and selling 6,000 August 21, 2026 $150.0 calls. With SPCX referenced at $125.33, both call strikes were out of the money, making this a defined-risk upside position targeting a rally into the $135 to $150 zone over the next year. Based on the leg premiums, the trader paid $5.43 million for the long calls and collected $3.39 million from the short calls, resulting in a net premium of negative $2.04 million, or a net debit. That structure is typically used for directional upside exposure with limited risk and capped reward, indicating the buyer is willing to fund a meaningful premium outlay in exchange for leveraged participation in a medium-term advance.

A synthetic short position totaling $8.58 million was the second highlighted trade, created by buying 3,500 March 19, 2027 $100.0 puts and selling 3,500 March 19, 2027 $230.0 calls. With the stock at $125.33, the $100.0 put was out of the money and the $230.0 call was deeply out of the money, but together the structure expresses a clear bearish view by replicating short-equity style exposure through options. The trader paid $5.69 million for the puts while receiving $2.89 million from the short calls, for a net premium of negative $2.80 million, meaning a net debit was paid to establish the position. Strategically, this kind of combination is used to position for downside in the underlying while reducing some of the outright put cost through call premium intake, though it leaves the trader exposed if the stock makes a major upside move.

Overall, the large-trade flow in SPCX leans bearish. Although the biggest single trade was a sizable bullish call spread that points to interest in a controlled upside scenario, the broader large-order picture shows heavier downside-oriented premium and a meaningful presence of put buying, bearish call structures, and synthetic short exposure. That combination suggests institutional traders are more focused on protecting against weakness or positioning for downside than chasing an outright upside breakout, so the prevailing sentiment from the full large-trade tape is moderately bearish.

Strategy Reference

Given the extremely elevated IV percentile, premium sellers could consider a short put spread such as selling the $100 put and buying the $95 put to capture rich volatility premium while defining risk, though the synthetic short position warns that a breakdown below $100 is a real institutional concern.