The Hong Kong IPO market has seen sustained growth in recent years, with total fundraising in 2025 surpassing HKD 280 billion, ranking first globally in new share issuance. However, following the wave of listings comes the pressure of concentrated lock-up share expirations. According to SPDB International estimates, the Hong Kong market is expected to see approximately HKD 1.6 trillion worth of shares become eligible for trading this year, with monthly expiration volumes exceeding HKD 100 billion for six months. Faced with such a significant expiration wave, market sentiment has become cautious, with some investors concerned about potential downward pressure on stock prices.
Nevertheless, the impact of share expiries varies significantly across different industries and companies of varying market capitalizations. Typically, sectors like new energy batteries and industrial transportation exhibit lower sensitivity to such events, resulting in relatively moderate stock price fluctuations. Furthermore, mid- to large-cap stocks are generally less affected by expirations. ZENERGY (03677), whose lock-up period expired on its one-year listing anniversary on April 14th, falls into this "low-sensitivity" category. The company operates in the new energy battery industry and has maintained a market capitalization consistently above HKD 20 billion since its listing, indicating a substantial size and ample liquidity that provides significantly stronger shock absorption compared to small-cap stocks.
More notably, irrational market fluctuations driven by expiration-related sentiment may present a rare window of opportunity for medium- to long-term investors to establish positions. For ZENERGY, its 2025 annual report has robustly demonstrated the strength of its fundamental business. Amid intense competition in the power battery industry, the company has shown strong growth momentum through lean manufacturing, deep and increasingly diversified customer relationships, and forward-looking positioning in energy storage and the low-altitude economy. For a company with such solid fundamentals and clear intrinsic value, significant short-term price volatility could indeed present a favorable "buying on the dip" opportunity.
**Profit Surges 8-Fold, Confirming High-Quality Fundamentals** Established in 2019, ZENERGY has rapidly grown into a leading domestic lithium-ion battery manufacturer. Data from the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance indicates that in 2025, ZENERGY's installed power battery volume and market share in China saw significant year-on-year increases, ranking seventh in new energy passenger vehicle installations.
Regarding the ongoing expiration window, the core question for the market should be whether ZENERGY's fundamentals are strong enough to support its share price. The company's 2025 financial report provides a direct and powerful answer: this power battery "dark horse" delivered results far exceeding industry expectations in its first year as a public company. The report shows that ZENERGY achieved annual revenue of RMB 8.1 billion, a 57.9% increase year-on-year. Gross profit doubled to RMB 1.49 billion, with the corresponding gross margin rising by 3.8 percentage points to 18.4%. Net profit surged dramatically by 788.4% to RMB 810 million, surpassing market forecasts.
Analyzing the revenue structure, power batteries were the primary growth driver, contributing 94.8% of total revenue last year. This reflects ZENERGY's growing market influence in the sector. In 2025, the company's total battery shipments reached 19.8 GWh, a 66.7% year-on-year increase. Alongside this leap in scale, ZENERGY's customer base was further optimized, successfully transitioning from reliance on a single customer to a diversified portfolio of high-quality clients. It is understood that ZENERGY's power battery customers now include large central state-owned enterprises, emerging electric vehicle makers, and even leading multinational automotive OEMs, with its supply share for battery products in core models of several global leaders continuing to increase.
Due to temporary production capacity bottlenecks, ZENERGY's energy storage business contributed revenue of RMB 420 million in 2025, representing a relatively low proportion of total income. According to management commentary during the earnings call, the company prioritized allocating existing production lines to fulfill power battery deliveries last year. However, positively, ZENERGY is now fully advancing the deployment of high-quality, new production capacity. By the end of 2025, the company had brought an additional 10 GWh of capacity online, bringing its total capacity to 35.5 GWh. Furthermore, ZENERGY is progressing with the second phase of its Changshu project, a 15 GWh high-specific-energy fast-charging battery facility. Future plans include a 20 GWh energy storage battery project and a 50 GWh long-duration energy storage intelligent manufacturing project.
**Expiration Impact Manageable, Price Dip May Represent Buying Opportunity** By mid-April, ZENERGY's restricted shares officially became eligible for trading. However, as noted initially, 2025 was anticipated to be a significant year for lock-up expirations in the Hong Kong market, with approximately HKD 1.6 trillion worth of shares gradually entering circulation. Yet, the impact of these expirations requires case-specific analysis. For ZENERGY, its sector inherently has low sensitivity to such events. Moreover, mid- to large-cap stocks, buoyed by ample liquidity, demonstrate significantly stronger resilience than small-caps. Historical precedent suggests that for stocks like ZENERGY, expirations typically cause, at most, short-term sentiment-driven volatility, with an expected limited overall impact.
Reconsidering the fundamentals, given that ZENERGY's future growth trajectory is clearly defined, any share price volatility induced by the expiration could present a favorable entry point. The example of Horizon Robotics, which listed in 2024, serves as a good illustration. On the day its lock-up shares were lifted in April last year, Horizon Robotics's stock price plummeted nearly 18% intraday but quickly stabilized and rebounded, surging approximately 36% in the month following the expiration. This pattern suggests that for companies with solid fundamentals and clear growth logic, a sharp short-term pullback often constitutes a new buying opportunity.
Looking back at ZENERGY, the company's growth prospects are considerable. On one hand, although the 2025 results significantly exceeded expectations, they may not yet fully reflect the company's complete potential. Given the ongoing acceleration of its capacity expansion, once all planned capacity is operational, ZENERGY's total capacity is set to exceed the 100 GWh level. The ensuing scale effects are expected to drive comprehensive improvements across its financial metrics.
On the other hand, ZENERGY's technological reserves are simultaneously opening up multi-dimensional growth avenues. In cutting-edge technology, a 100 MWh pilot line for all-solid-state batteries is expected to be completed in the second half of this year, while its sodium-ion battery products have already been exported to the EU. The parallel advancement of multiple technology pathways builds long-term competitive barriers. In energy storage, last month ZENERGY signed an agreement for a 50 GWh new-generation large-capacity long-duration energy storage intelligent manufacturing project, focusing on 588Ah large-capacity cells to meet demand in long-duration storage, computing centers, and decentralized power supply models. Furthermore, management indicated during the earnings call that the contribution of energy storage revenue is expected to increase from 5% to around 15% by 2026.
In the promising low-altitude economy sector, ZENERGY is the first domestic power battery enterprise to simultaneously obtain both AS9100D aerospace quality system certification and an airworthiness certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration. Its aviation batteries have achieved批量交付 (batch delivery), with verified technical specifications emphasizing "three highs and one fast" (high safety, high energy density, high rate capability, fast charging), giving it a significant first-mover advantage.
From being a core supplier to the new energy vehicle industry, to an energy guarantor in the AI computing era, and a pioneer in the low-altitude economy, ZENERGY is undergoing a value transition from a singular power battery manufacturer to a comprehensive, all-scenario energy platform.
Moreover, from a valuation perspective, based on the current price at the time of writing, ZENERGY's trailing and forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 24x and 15x, respectively. Comparing this to the average consensus 2026 P/E of 25.5x for representative Hong Kong-listed battery companies, ZENERGY's forward P/E appears significantly attractive. Referencing the target price of HKD 13 set by Haitong International analysts, the current share price implies an upside potential of over 70%.
In conclusion, it is evident that for a high-quality company like ZENERGY, with its solid fundamentals, clear growth path, and multiple unfolding growth drivers, any irrational price correction driven by expiration-related sentiment is likely to provide a rare strategic entry point for medium- to long-term investors. After all, while the market acts as a voting machine in the short term, it serves as a weighing machine in the long run. As long as a company's growth momentum remains robust, short-term price fluctuations will not disrupt its long-term upward trajectory.