The Bitcoin halving countdown has now advanced to 61%, a milestone revealed by analyst Root on platform X, signaling that the four-year cycle has entered its second half. Market attention is rapidly converging on the next halving event, expected to occur in April 2028, when block rewards will undergo a structural reduction. The approaching timeline of this macro event provides a clear anchor for supply-tightening expectations in the current market.
From a technical and momentum perspective, OKLink data confirms the precise halving date is locked in for April 13, 2028, with roughly 109,000 blocks still awaiting mining. Notably, when the September 22, 2026 tweet was published, Bitcoin had surged past $86,000 on September 21, marking its highest level since January. On the same day, the US spot ETF market saw explosive inflows, with a single-day net inflow of $999 million.
Among the leaders, BlackRock's IBIT (IBIT.US) topped the chart with $381 million, while ARKB (ARKB.US) and FBTC (FBTC.US) recorded net inflows of $289 million and $239 million respectively. Over the three-day stretch, total net inflows approached $1.6 billion, underscoring how institutional capital is aggressively pricing in the scarcity of supply.
Coinbase (COIN.US) CEO Brian Armstrong reinforced this narrative during his September remarks, predicting Bitcoin could sustain its upward trajectory over the next year or two as the halving approaches. He cited historical patterns, noting that price surges often precede the event. Looking at the mechanism's evolution, miner rewards already dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC after the 2024 halving, and the 2028 event will further compress them to just 1.5625 BTC.
This algorithmically enforced deceleration of new coin issuance, set against steadily growing demand, forms the core valuation support. The 61% progress mark is not a direct price signal but rather a defined stage in Bitcoin's long-term supply timeline. With BTC now trading back above $86,000 and ETF-fueled institutional flows gaining strength, the market is actively repricing this supply-constriction cycle. This represents the earliest pricing response to the next major monetary supply contraction since the 2024 halving, as long-term holding logic is being accelerated and validated by short-term liquidity.