A High-Quality Report Card: China's GDP Growth Hits 5.3% YoY in First Half

Market Watcher
2025/07/16

China's economic performance report for the first half of the year was officially released on July 15. "This represents a report card of exceptionally high quality," stated Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics, during a press conference held by the State Council Information Office.

Preliminary calculations show China's Gross Domestic Product reached 66.05 trillion yuan during the period, expanding 5.3% year-over-year in constant price terms. Quarterly breakdown reveals 5.4% growth in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2. Sheng characterized the national economy as demonstrating resilience under pressure, with major indicators exceeding expectations while maintaining stable progress and positive momentum.

Four key metrics underscore economic stability: - Growth showed modest acceleration, with H1 GDP growth 0.3 percentage points higher than both the same period last year and full-year 2023. Q2 recorded 1.1% quarter-over-quarter expansion. - Employment remained broadly stable, with urban surveyed unemployment averaging 5.2% – down 0.1 percentage points from Q1. - Consumer prices demonstrated fundamental steadiness. Though the Consumer Price Index dipped 0.1% YoY in H1, June saw it turn positive at 0.1%, with core CPI rising to 0.7%. - International payments balanced effectively, as goods trade hit record highs for the period with foreign exchange reserves holding above $3.2 trillion.

Multiple bright spots emerged beyond stability: - Progress manifested through accelerated economic transformation, with R&D spending nearing 2.7% of GDP – surpassing the EU average and approaching OECD levels. New energy vehicle production surged over 30%. - New momentum accumulated rapidly, evidenced by high-tech manufacturing's value-added output climbing 9.5%, while core digital economy industries reached about 10% of GDP – matching developed economies. - Smoother circulation emerged as domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth. Freight turnover jumped 5.1% and passenger turnover rose 4.9%.

The "troika" of economic drivers displayed structural improvements: - Net exports contributed 31.2% to GDP growth, with goods trade expanding 2.9% YoY. Exports exceeded 13 trillion yuan, surging 7.2%. - Investment patterns optimized as high-tech service investment grew 8.6%, significantly outpacing overall fixed-asset investment. - Consumption became the undisputed engine, contributing 52% to growth. Total retail sales hit 24.55 trillion yuan, accelerating from 5.0% in H1 to 5.4% in Q2.

Sheng noted consumption momentum will continue through H2, supported by expanding stimulus policies including trade-in subsidies. Authorities will leverage China's substantial policy toolkit to ensure stable growth, with Sheng emphasizing the 5.3% H1 expansion establishes solid groundwork for annual targets. Policy reserves remain abundant for timely deployment according to market conditions.

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