On April 8, Bitcoin (BTC) was recently priced at $68,334, showing signs of a late-stage bear market. However, new downward pressure may emerge in the coming months. Based on long-term on-chain metrics and market sentiment, Bitcoin could still undergo a significant correction before recovery. Joao Wedson, Founder and CEO of on-chain analytics platform Alphractal, indicated that Bitcoin's 720-day Tactical Bull-Bear Index (TBBI) has fallen into an extreme pessimism zone below 20. Historically, this level corresponds to a "late-stage fear" phase, suggesting investors might face one final washout in the near term.

Historical data supports this view. In 2022, when the TBBI entered similarly low levels, Bitcoin declined by over 20%. In 2018, when a similar sentiment signal appeared, the drop approached 50%. The current market could face a comparable scenario, with BTC potentially experiencing a swing of up to $15,000 over the next six months, representing a decline of approximately 20%, targeting a price near $50,000. This aligns with Bitcoin's current on-chain realized price, forming a key support level.

Multiple indicators also point to the $50,000–$55,000 range. This zone not only corresponds with the TBBI signal but is also close to the on-chain cost basis reflected by Glassnode's MVRV extreme deviation pricing band, indicating any final washout could push BTC toward this significant support level. Additionally, factors such as war-driven oil price inflation and quantum security risks could act as catalysts for further Bitcoin declines.

While some analysts, like Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence, predict Bitcoin could fall to $10,000, recent strategic institutional buying has provided a market buffer. Large-scale purchases have partially absorbed selling pressure, limiting BTC's downside and suggesting an extreme bear market scenario may not fully materialize.

Looking ahead, if institutions continue accumulating Bitcoin, as seen in recent buying waves, the cryptocurrency could rebound swiftly after a volatile washout, potentially even challenging levels above $100,000. Overall, investors should remain cautious of short-term volatility risks while watching for potential long-term value recovery opportunities, combining position management with trend analysis to navigate the uncertainties of the late bear market phase.