Tony Rodriguez, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at Nuveen, noted that the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, emphasizing the dual challenges posed by slowing economic growth and distortionary effects from tariffs. Despite significant volatility in overall GDP data, actual economic growth continues to show a gradual slowdown trend amid persistent uncertainty. Tariffs are expected to be raised further, typically requiring several months to be fully reflected in consumer prices, therefore the maximum impact on inflation data is anticipated to emerge around year-end.

Nuveen expects U.S. economic growth to continue slowing but avoiding a recession. Core inflation is projected to remain around 3.0% in 2025, potentially suppressing real income growth and dragging down overall economic performance. Fixed income investments may continue to face pressure from ongoing uncertainty. Nuveen forecasts U.S. real GDP growth of approximately 1.0% in 2025, with recovery to around 1.8% expected in 2026 as negative tariff impacts diminish.

Nuveen points out that attractive valuations, solid fundamentals, and potential interest rate cuts create multiple positive factors. The real estate market is at a turning point, with continued optimism for "global cities" positioning, focusing deployment in growth markets with highly educated and diversified populations.

In fixed income, municipal bonds offer attractive yield rates and income advantages, maintaining their appeal. Even amid continued market volatility, municipal bonds retain the advantage of providing attractive yield levels. Nuveen also sees investment value in senior loans, with current yields reaching 6.5% to 8%. Market opportunities are abundant, with a substantial volume of loans (totaling $225 billion) currently trading below $95, with an average price of approximately $85 and three-year maturity yields of around 16%.