Market Analysis: On May 8th, gold rebounded from its weekly lows, climbing from a one-month low to reach a new two-week high. This shift was primarily driven by a rapid reversal in market sentiment. Previously, significant disagreements in US-Iran talks and continued US maritime blockades against Iran fueled concerns over energy supply, supporting oil prices to remain high and volatile. This intensified inflationary pressures, compelling the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, which directly weighed on gold prices. However, this past Monday, the US initiated a "Freedom Plan" attempting to guide commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, which was countered by Iran. To avoid escalating into a new large-scale conflict, former President Trump quickly halted the operation. Subsequently, reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to reaching a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict. Signals of de-escalation in the Middle East caused a sharp drop in oil prices, alleviating inflationary pressures and supporting the rise in gold prices.
The precious metals market has experienced repeated volatility recently. Gold has ended its previous weak decline, while silver has seen strong capital inflows. Many investors are uncertain about the current trend. This analysis provides a comprehensive and easy-to-understand breakdown of the daily and short-term movements for gold and silver, including precise key levels for operational reference.
Gold Price Trend Analysis: Daily Chart: The decline has ended, and a震荡上行 phase has begun. Gold formed a strong bullish candlestick on Wednesday, closing above the 4668 Fibonacci level and successfully站稳 the 10-day moving average. This彻底结束了 the持续弱势下滑 trend of the previous two weeks, officially transitioning the market into a震荡上行 channel. This reversal rally has room for further upside, with a short-term target around the 4800 level. However, it is important to note that this is not a strong unilateral uptrend but rather a震荡整理 phase within a bull market; the market lacks sustained momentum for a continuous sharp rise.
If the price rises forcefully without a pullback to test support, it could easily encounter resistance and fall back, failing to achieve continuity. Only after a pullback to confirm support around the 10-day MA at 4630, using this level to build a short-term base, can the market stabilize thoroughly. Subsequently, it could then gradually climb step-by-step, further testing the 4803 Fibonacci resistance and the 4840 daily moving average resistance.
Hourly Chart: Short-term high volatility,警惕冲高回落. Looking at the hourly chart, support levels at 4655 and 4635 have not been retested since Wednesday's rally. On Thursday, the price experienced minor震荡续涨 supported by the middle Bollinger Band, never offering a low entry opportunity. However, the MACD indicator is now showing a bearish divergence signal, combined with resistance from the upper channel line. The risk of a short-term冲高回落 in gold is increasing. A downward correction towards the annual moving average around 4630 or the lower channel line is needed. After completing this pullback and adjustment, the subsequent stabilized upward move would be stronger, allowing for a successful assault above 4800. Short-term gold trading range: Focus on support at 4680-4670 below and resistance at 4760-4762 above. View the market as range-bound for now. If the price effectively breaks below the middle Bollinger Band with a strong bearish candlestick, it will likely initiate a downward move to confirm support, at which point a strategy of buying on dips would be appropriate.
Silver Price Trend Analysis: Daily Chart: Capital inflows drive a short-squeeze rally. Silver performed exceptionally well on Thursday, showing clear signs of significant capital entering the market. The daily chart formed a strong bullish candlestick, indicating a short-squeeze rally with very clear signals of strengthening bullish momentum. It has been emphasized that silver's bull market typically begins earlier than gold's, and the current price action fully confirms this view. Furthermore, fundamental support exists with COMEX silver inventories持续走低, and as the month-end physical delivery period approaches, these favorable factors should continue to push silver higher. From the perspective of the daily uptrend channel, the ultimate target for this rally could be around the 90 level. The lower channel line has provided support multiple times, indicating strong支撑力度.
Hourly Chart: Channel breakout,回踩依旧看多. On the hourly chart, silver has successfully broken above its上行通道. The short-term trend is biased towards strength. Even if a pullback occurs subsequently, as long as the price holds above 78, the震荡上行 trend remains intact. Upside targets can be viewed in stages at 83 and 86. The overall bullish trend is clear.
Summary of Key Levels for Gold and Silver: Gold Support: 4680-4670, 4655, 4630. Gold Resistance: 4760-4762, 4800, 4803, 4840. Silver Support: 78. Silver Resistance: 83, 86, 90.