According to Woofun AI, the world's largest Bitcoin-holding company, Strategy (MSTR.US), is facing a severe crisis of being removed from major global stock indices. The core trigger is that index compiler MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) has decided to exclude companies lacking actual business operations from major stock indices. This rule change directly threatens Strategy's status as an index constituent, which could in turn trigger massive selling by passive funds tracking the index and severely impact its financing structure of issuing shares to purchase BTC.

The timeline and evaluation logic of the new rules have gradually become clear. MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) officially announced the introduction of new standards on the 15th (local time), aimed at removing non-operating companies from its global investable market indices. The revised standards will begin to apply at the close on November 30. It is worth noting that this decision does not mean Strategy (MSTR.US) will be immediately removed from the index, because MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) will conduct financial standard assessments on companies currently included in the index to determine whether they have actual business operating capabilities.

MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) plans to implement the non-operating company classification standards it published on August 3 after partial modifications. The core idea is: a company will not be guaranteed eligibility for index inclusion simply because it is publicly listed; rather, its actual business operations and financial characteristics will be comprehensively assessed. Therefore, the likelihood of Strategy (MSTR.US) losing its index inclusion eligibility has increased significantly, and its final fate will be revealed at the end of November.

The business transformation of Strategy (MSTR.US) is the fundamental reason it faces delisting risk. The company was originally an enterprise software company, but after Chairman Michael Saylor launched a Bitcoin purchase strategy, it effectively transformed into a company holding digital assets. The Bitcoin it currently holds is worth approximately $70 billion. To maintain this massive asset scale, the company raises funds by issuing various financial products such as stocks, bonds, and preferred shares, and then continues to purchase BTC. However, this structure, centered on financial engineering and lacking support from traditional physical business operations, is highly likely to meet MSCI Inc's (MSCI.US) new non-operating company classification standards.

MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) stated that for companies currently included in the index, they will only be listed for removal if they fail to meet multiple financial requirements. Therefore, whether Strategy (MSTR.US) will ultimately be removed still depends on the specific detailed implementation standards and the results of the financial assessment.

If delisting becomes reality, the market will face enormous passive capital outflow pressure. After the announcement, Strategy's (MSTR.US) stock price fell about 2% in after-hours trading. What the market fears is that removal from the index will trigger large-scale stock selling. ETFs and index funds tracking MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) indices must adjust their holdings once index constituents change. If Strategy (MSTR.US) is removed from the index, funds tracking that index will likely mechanically sell the stock.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that JPMorgan (JPM.US) estimated last year that if Strategy (MSTR.US) were removed from the MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) index, stock selling could reach as much as $2.8 billion. If other major indices also take similar measures, there could be an additional $8.8 billion in selling pressure. Combined, the potential sell-off scale could reach $11.6 billion. However, this is not a certain actual selling volume, but only an estimate based on possible follow-up measures by other index providers.

Industry views further reveal the importance of index inclusion to Strategy (MSTR.US). Brian Dobson, Managing Director of the Technology Research Division at ClearStreet, pointed out that for a company like Strategy (MSTR.US), being included in an index is very important because it can provide sustained buying demand, from regular share purchases by retirement plans to mutual fund investments. He added that if the company is removed from the index, investors replicating the index may sell their holdings, creating short-term selling pressure. This withdrawal of passive funds not only affects the stock price but also shakes market confidence in the company as a long-term investment target, especially when institutional investors rely on indexation strategies for asset allocation, changes in constituents are often seen as signals of fundamental or compliance risk.

The deeper crisis lies in the sustainability of its financing model. The core of Strategy's (MSTR.US) Bitcoin purchase strategy is to raise funds through the capital markets. When the stock price is above the net asset value (NAV) of the BTC it holds, the company raises funds by issuing new shares, and then uses those funds to purchase BTC. When the stock price premium is high enough, this practice can relatively reduce the impact of shareholder value dilution caused by issuing new shares, while also increasing BTC holdings. But as the stock price premium narrows, the efficiency of this strategy also declines. Existing shareholders worry that issuing new shares will cause equity dilution, so Strategy (MSTR.US) began shifting its financing channels to preferred shares. Recently, as the appeal of preferred shares has also declined, the company even asked shareholders to approve a switch to paying dividends daily.

Alexander Blume, CEO of ToPrime, said that Strategy's (MSTR.US) entire operating model of issuing shares to further purchase BTC will become more difficult. He also pointed out that companies holding digital assets are not regarded as traditional operating enterprises, so it is not surprising that major index providers are cautious about exposing investors to such highly volatile companies. In this situation, if removed from the index, the stock price will face further downward pressure, and the conditions for raising funds by issuing new securities will also worsen.

Facing the allegations, management expressed strong opposition. Strategy (MSTR.US) Chairman Michael Saylor strongly opposed MSCI Inc's (MSCI.US) move. In an interview with Bloomberg Television this week, he argued that the amount of capital controlled by MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) is actually very small, and that this move is a decision based on bias against digital assets. Saylor criticized MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) for making value judgments about specific companies' business models, arguing that this sets a bad precedent. However, this decision by MSCI Inc (MSCI.US) will not force Strategy (MSTR.US) to sell BTC; what is affected first is Strategy's (MSTR.US) stock, and the BTC assets it holds will not automatically be disposed of. The market is also watching that this decision will affect not only Strategy (MSTR.US) but also other listed companies that hold large amounts of digital assets such as BTC.

Ultimately, the key is whether Strategy (MSTR.US) will really be included in the removal scope at the end of November under MSCI Inc's (MSCI.US) new standards. If it is indeed removed, then in addition to stock price volatility caused by passive capital outflows, the sustainability of the company's digital asset financing strategy of issuing shares to increase BTC holdings will also be tested once again.