International investment bank Bernstein has announced the termination of its research coverage on China's consumer sector, effective May 26, citing the departure of a senior analyst. This move impacts a range of leading Chinese consumer companies, including ANTA SPORTS, Gree Electric Appliances,Inc.Of Zhuhai, and several others.
The firm stated that, as of the announcement date, its previously published research reports, ratings, price targets, and earnings forecasts for the affected companies should no longer be relied upon.
Bernstein is a prominent global provider of independent equity research and brokerage services. Established as a joint venture between Société Générale and AllianceBernstein in 2022, it commenced operations in 2024 with a dual-headquarters model in New York and London. The firm employs over 750 staff and operates in more than 20 financial centers worldwide. Its core offerings include independent equity research covering over 1,000 listed companies, cash equity execution, macro research, and prime brokerage services. Unlike many Wall Street firms heavily reliant on investment banking revenue, Bernstein is known for its independent, deep-dive research from a buy-side perspective and holds a strong reputation among institutional investors.
In the context of China's consumer market, Bernstein has previously offered influential insights. In 2015, amidst widespread international skepticism regarding the accuracy of China's GDP figures, the firm developed an innovative "consumer goods penetration model." By analyzing the store density of global chains like Starbucks and KFC in China, Bernstein argued that their penetration rates aligned with the country's per capita income levels, famously suggesting that "Starbucks' pumpkin spice lattes don't lie," thereby challenging the notion of significant, long-term GDP misreporting.
Within luxury goods research, Bernstein's Managing Director, Luca Solca, a long-time tracker of global luxury trends, noted in an early May 2026 interview that Chinese consumers remained relatively cautious, with the property market crisis leading many to cut back on spending. However, he also observed signs of gradual improvement over the preceding four to five months.
While Bernstein attributed the coverage termination directly to the "senior analyst departure" (specifically the exit of lead analyst Melinda Hu creating a talent gap), some market observers suggest that if the firm maintained a highly optimistic view of the Chinese consumer sector, it could have opted to rehire rather than cease coverage entirely. This decision is interpreted by some as a potential signal of growing caution regarding the sector's outlook, with industry insiders offering wry commentary on the move.
Notably, just prior to this announcement, Bernstein had reaffirmed a bearish stance on Pop Mart. In a research report dated May 13, 2026, Bernstein acknowledged Pop Mart's strong Q1 revenue growth of 75-80% (with mainland China growth at 100-105%) but cautioned that this growth did not necessarily reflect profitability or sustainability. The firm questioned whether the expansion was healthy or merely a result of a low base effect.
Bernstein expressed a prudent view on Pop Mart's full-year 2026 performance, remained wary of its margin trajectory following increased investment, and anticipated a slowdown in growth in subsequent quarters. The firm also raised questions about the timeline for profitability in Pop Mart's international business, despite acknowledging strong overseas revenue growth. Based on this assessment, Bernstein reiterated its "Underperform" rating on Pop Mart with a target price of 181 Hong Kong dollars.