The outlook for gold remains a topic of debate among market participants. On June 29th, spot gold managed a modest rebound of 1.35% to close at $4081.02 per ounce. However, this slight gain could not obscure a stark reality: the precious metal has now declined for four consecutive weeks. Since reaching a historic peak of $5596 on January 29th, the gold price has plummeted by approximately 29%. The asset once hailed as the ultimate safe haven is now enduring its longest weekly losing streak since 2023. Concurrently, geopolitical tensions are simmering, with heightened friction reported over the weekend between U.S. forces and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz.

In the near term, gold continues to face significant headwinds. Key variables such as non-farm payroll data, U.S.-Iran negotiations, and commentary from Federal Reserve officials each hold the potential to trigger fresh market volatility. However, as some strategists note, as nations increase oil production and revenue flows resume, these funds may not exclusively flow into U.S. Treasuries but could find their way back into the gold market. The ongoing battle around the $4000 level may represent merely a sharp pause within a more extended bull cycle.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart's consecutive bullish candles suggest the possibility of an upward rebound and further price exploration this week. However, excessive optimism is unwarranted. The four-hour chart shows price action still suppressed below the $4100 level, with Bollinger Bands continuing to contract. The overall weak structure remains intact and could reverse the daily chart's bullish momentum at any time. Therefore, prior to the release of the non-farm payroll data this week, a short-term trading approach is advisable. Avoid fixating on a single directional bias or assuming trend continuation; instead, remain flexible and ready to switch between long and short positions.

For the beginning of the week, key support to watch is at the $4020 level. A decisive break below this point would warrant a shift in strategy to selling on rebounds. In the short term, focus remains on whether prices can hold above $4040 to test the $4100 resistance zone or the $4130 area. The primary overhead resistance to monitor is at $4150.

Trading Strategy (Short-term): Consider a long position on a pullback to around $4055, with a stop-loss below $4040, targeting an upside move towards $4100.